000 AXNT20 KNHC 050003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc Ocean, extending from 12N24W to 01N24W, moving W at 5 kt. Upper level diffluence supports scattered moderate convection from 0N to 11N between 13W and 31W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc, extending from 13N45W to 02N46W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a strong wind shear and dry air environment, which is hindering convection at the time. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, extending S from 12N61W to inland Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. The portion of the wave over the SE Caribbean is in a strong wind shear environment. However, shallow moisture is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms S of Grenada and in Trinidad and and Tobago. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 07N18W to 05N22W. The ITCZ begins near 04N26W and continues along 03N40W to 0N49W. For information about convection see the tropical waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Abundant deep layer moisture W of 91W in the gulf along with difluent flow aloft continue to fuel scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms over the NW basin where oil platforms report low visibilities. Similar convection is within 210 nm off the eastern coast of Mexico associated with a 1009 mb low centered near 23N96W. Besides the weak low, which is likely to become a surface trough later tonight, SE winds of 5 to 10 kt dominates the western half of the basin whereas lighter variable winds cover the waters E of 90W. This disturbance will continue to produce heavy rainfall over the western basin, portions of eastern Mexico, southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley during the next few days. For more information on the heavy rainfall threat in the United States, please see products issued by your local forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough over the W Atlc extends S to a base over the NE Caribbean. The upper trough along with abundant moisture associated with a surface trough N of Puerto Rico continue to support scattered showers and tstms across Hispaniola. Scattered to isolated showers are happening across portions of Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Model guidance suggests there is a tropical wave moving across the central basin, however strong wind shear across the region is hindering convection at the time. Middle to upper level diffluent flow and shallow moisture support isolated showers and tstms over western Cuba and adjacent waters as well as in western Jamaica. Otherwise, a ridge north of the area will maintain strong trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and the South Central Caribbean tonight through Thu. The remainder of the Caribbean will have moderate to fresh trade winds through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Diffluent flow between a middle level ridge centered near the Yucatan Channel and a trough along the W Atlc support a surface trough N of Puerto Rico. Low level precipitable water imagery show abundant moisture associated with this trough, which is generating isolated showers and tstms N of 21N W of 58W. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high and dry air, which support fair weather. For information about tropical waves, see section above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos