000 AXNT20 KNHC 041751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 151 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recent satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico near 23N97W remains disorganized. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection covers the western Gulf from 21N-29N west of 92W along with fresh to locally strong winds. This system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico later today or tonight, and the chance of development into a tropical depression is low. However, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of eastern Mexico, southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley during the next few days. For more information on the heavy rainfall threat in the United States, please see products issued by your local forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center. Also, see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W from 11N southward. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection accompanies this wave from 02N-09N between 18W-26W. A second tropical wave is along 43W from 12N southward. Isolated to scattered showers are mainly south of 04N within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave approaching the SE Caribbean is along 60W from 13N southward. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are on either side of the wave axis, mainly south of 11N. This activity is occurring near the southernmost Windward Islands, Trinidad, NE Venezuela and the waters of the SE Caribbean south of 11.5N between Trinidad and the ABC Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal section of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to near 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N25W to 04N36W to 02N40W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 01N44W to 01S48W. Aside from the convection mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-10N between the west coast of Africa and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 26W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the special features section above for details on the broad area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridging continues across the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a high pressure of 1017 mb near 27N85W. This is bringing fair weather conditions to the eastern half of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail under the high pressure in the eastern Gulf. Closer to the broad low, fresh winds are seen south of 28N and west of 91W. Gentle to moderate ESE winds will persist in the eastern Gulf of Mexico through this evening. The ridge will shift eastward late tonight and on Wednesday. Expect SE to S return flow for most of the basin through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated showers are in the SE Caribbean. See Tropical Waves section for details. Most of the Caribbean Sea is experiencing fair weather due to mid-level ridging covering the northwestern half of the basin. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered showers and tstorms due to the East Pacific monsoon trough are seen SW of a line from 09N76W to 13N83.5W. Latest ASCAT shows fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean with moderate winds elsewhere, and gentle in the NW Caribbean between Jamaica and Cuba. Fresh winds are also likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras to the east of Belize. A ridge north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea through midweek. A weak inverted trough may develop to the north of Puerto Rico during the next day or two, and remain in the area until Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 32N72W to the coast near Brunswick Georgia, where it transitions to a stationary front. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the front. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N73W to 28N78W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen along and within 240 nm SE of the eastern part of the trough, generally north of 27N between 68W-76W. Upper-level diffluence is just to the east of that, leading to scattered moderate convection north of 29N between 60W-65W, and isolated tstorms from 22N-26N between 62W-67W. ASCAT shows a surface trough is from 18N59W to 20N54W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 18N- 23N between 52W-57W. The remainder of the Atlantic is covered by ridging. A weak inverted trough may develop N of Puerto Rico during the next day or two, and remain in the area until Friday. The trough may weaken the ridge along 28N. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen