000 AXNT20 KNHC 041045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche near 21N96W have become a little better organized since yesterday. Scattered to moderate convection extends 280 to 300 nm north of the low center. However, recent satellite-based wind data indicate that the circulation is elongated and poorly defined. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is along 21W from 12N southward. Scattered moderate to strong convection is associated with this wave from 08N-04N between 22W-18W. A second tropical wave is along 41W from 11N southward. Isolated convection is seen within the vicinity of this wave, mainly south of 03N. The TPW shows a surge of moistened air in association with the wave. A third tropical wave is along 57W from 13N southward. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are on either side of the wave axis, mainly south of 08N. The wave will help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal section of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to near 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 03N40W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 02N42W to 01N47W. Aside from the convection mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near Africa from 10N- 06N between 17W-13W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the special features section above for details on the broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development. A surface trough extends from this 1007 mb low from 24N97W to 19N94W. An area of strong convection is in the central Bay of Campeche, noted from 23N-19N between 96W-91W. Frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected with this activity. Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the Gulf of Mexico with a high pressure of 1017 mb near 26N84W. This is bringing fair weather conditions to the eastern half of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds under the high pressure in the eastern Gulf. Along the northwestern Gulf coast, gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds are seen. Closer to the broad low, fresh winds are seen south of 24N and west of 92W. Broad low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico will drift NW toward Tampico Mexico today with a diminishing chance of intensifying to a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate ESE winds will persist S of a ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The ridge will shift eastward on Wednesday. Expect S to SE return flow for most of the basin through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moisture persists across portions of the Lesser Antilles in association with a mid-upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean, and a surface trough that extends from near Guadeloupe near 17N61W into the Atlantic. Isolated thunderstorms continue to stream near the Lesser Antilles. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough, located over Panama, continues to induce isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 12N and west of 79W. Fair weather prevails over the central and NW Caribbean due to a mid- level ridge over the NW Caribbean. In the northeast to northwest Caribbean, light to gentle trades are observed. Moderate to fresh trades are north of Venezuela and Colombia in addition to the Gulf of Honduras. A ridge north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean through midweek. A weak inverted trough may develop to the north of Puerto Rico during the next few days and remain in the area until Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 32N79W to 30N74W. Because of the upper-level trough axis bringing upper-level diffluence, scattered convection is seen within the vicinity of this trough from 31N- 29N between 69W-73W. Farther south, another surface trough extends from Guadeloupe to 19N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen to the north of this feature, from 22N-19N between 53W-56W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 42N38W. A weak inverted trough may develop N of Puerto Rico during the next few days and remain in the area until Friday. The trough will weaken the ridge axis along 28N. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR