000 AXNT20 KNHC 031758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 158 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W have become a little better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite-based wind data indicate that the circulation is elongated and poorly defined. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is along 19W from 11N southward. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection associated with this wave is noted from 03N-08N between the coast of Africa and 22W. A second tropical wave is along 35W from 11N southward. Scattered moderate convection can be found where the wave meets the ITCZ from 04N-06N between 35W-38W. The TPW animation shows a surge of moistened air in association with the wave. A third tropical wave is along 54W from 13N southward. Isolated showers and tstorms are on either side of the wave axis, mainly south of 10N. The wave will help to enhance showers and tstorms over the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal section of Guinea near 10N14W, then continues to near 06N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 05N33W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N38W to 03N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-07N between 22W- 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W. The low is forecast to move NW toward the NE coast of Mexico through late Tuesday, with a medium chance of tropical cyclone development. See the Special Features section above for more details. A surface through extends from the low center to near 22N97W. Scattered moderate convection extends out 270 nm in the NW quadrant of the low, 240 nm NE and 120 nm SE of the broad low center. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Fresh E winds are seen on ASCAT north of the low from 22.5N-25N between 92.5W-96W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a weak ridge. The most recent scatterometer data indicate light to gentle winds across the eastern half of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds will persist south of a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will shift east on Wed, and produce S to SE return flow for most of the basin through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant moisture persists across portions of the Lesser Antilles in association with a mid-upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean, and a surface trough that extends from Guadeloupe east-northeastward to near 18N57W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms cover portions of the Lesser Antilles and SE Caribbean, including near Guadeloupe. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough, located over Panama, is inducing scattered showers and storms south of 12N and west of 76W. Generally fair weather prevails over the central and NW Caribbean due to a mid-level ridge over the NW Caribbean. A ridge north of the area along 28N will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean through midweek. Broad troughing is expected to develop north of Puerto Rico by Tuesday, then drift N-NE through Fri. Expect enhanced moisture to persist into Tuesday across the far eastern Caribbean from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico due to the trough as well as the approaching tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 32N78W to 27N79W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the trough axis from 27N-31N between 74W-79W. A weak upper-level trough axis is along 64W between 21N-32N. Upper-level diffluence east of the upper trough axis is inducing scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 60W-65W. Surface ridging extends over the southeastern and central Bahamas. Farther south, a surface trough that extends from Guadeloupe to near 19N56W is inducing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of the trough axis east of 60W. Some scattered convection is also from 20N-24N between 54W-56W due to a small area of upper-level diffluence. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging, anchored by a 1031 mb high near 36N44W. High pressure will build southward over the NW waters tonight through Tue night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere over the forecast area. A broad surface trough is expected to develop north of Puerto Rico on Tuesday, then drift N-NE through Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen