000 AXNT20 KNHC 031022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche near 20.5N95W. However, recent satellite wind data show the low does not have a well-defined circulation. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and may become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is along 19W from 11N southward. The wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis and just N of the monsoon trough from 06 to 07.5N and between 16W and 20W. A second tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 11N southward. Scattered moderate convection can be found where the wave meets the ITCZ from 05N to 06N between 31W and 33W. The TPW animation shows a surge of moistened air in association with the wave. A third tropical wave is along 52W from 12N southward. Isolated moderate convection is near the wave axis from 04N to 07N between 49W and 53W. TPW animation indicates a high amplitude northward bulge of moisture between the wave and the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal section of Sierra Leone, then continues to near 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 05N30W to 04N40W to 05N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 10W and 16W, and from 02N to 07N between 20W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche near 20.5N95W. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone development. See the Special Features section above for more details. A surface through extends from the low center to near 23N97W. This trough is well defined on scatterometer data, that also show moderate to fresh E to SE winds E of the trough axis and NW winds in the 15 to 20 kt range W of the trough axis. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is to the SE of the low and covers the area from 19N to 21N between 90W and 93W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Some banding features are also noted around the low center. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a weak ridge, anchored by a 1015 mb high pressure located over the eastern Gulf near 27N83W. The most recent scatterometer data indicate light to gentle winds across the eastern half of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will shift east on Wed, and produce SE to S return flow for most of the basin through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of low pressure persists across Central America, and continues to support the development of showers and thunderstorms over parts of Central America, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Abundant moisture also persists across the eastern Caribbean, ahead of a mid-to-upper level trough that now extends from Dominican Republic to the SW Caribbean. This is affecting the Lesser Antilles, but mainly S of Guadeloupe, where some shower activity has been reported. Abundant moisture is forecast to persist over the eastern Caribbean today in a SE winds flow, keeping the likelihood of showers and isolated tstms over the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A broad trough is forecast to develop across the western Atlantic N of Puerto Rico through Tue and drift NE through Fri. A ridge north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1030 mb located near 35N44W dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters. The ridge axis extends SW reaching the Bahamas. Mainly moderate trades are noted along the southern periphery on the ridge based on scatterometer data, with the exception of moderate to fresh easterly winds ahead of the tropical wave located along 52W, just N of Hispaniola and in the Gulf of Honduras. The high pressure will move NE over the next 24-48 hours while slightly strengthen. At the same time, a weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast, clipping the waters E of NE Florida on Tue. As previously mentioned, a broad trough is forecast to develop across the western Atlantic N of Puerto Rico through Tue and drift NE through Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR