000 AXNT20 KNHC 030001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized scattered moderate isolated strong convection south of 23N along with winds ranging from 15 to 20 kt. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in the next day or two. As of 18 UTC, it has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before it moves inland. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is along 16/17W from 10N southward. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the westward propagation of the wave, and it shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Convection is noted near the wave axis from 07-03N and between 14W-18W. A second tropical wave is along 29W from 10N southward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-02N between 27W-31W. The TPW animation shows a surge of moistened air in association with the wave. A third tropical wave is along 49W from 12N southward. Scattered showers are near the wave axis from 07N- 03N. Earlier scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh NE to E winds ahead of the wave axis, and N of 07N. TPW shows a surge of moisture in association with the wave east of the axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Guinea/ Sierra Leone border near 09N13W, then continues to near 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 04N27W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 04N31W to 02N47W. Aside from the convection mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-02N between 18W-27W and from 05N-01N between 31W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A low pressure system is located over the southern Bay of Campeche near 19N94W has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. A trough extends northwest from the center of the low to 22N97W. See the Special Features section above for more details. Another trough is noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula from 24N84W to 21N87W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a weak ridge, anchored by a 1015 mb high pressure located near 29N93W. Doppler radar indicates scattered showers with embedded isolated tstms along the East coast for Florida. Scatterometer pass shows light to gentle winds across the northern Gulf and moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 24N between 87W and 92W. Elongated low pressure over the SW Gulf will drift W-NW through tonight, before turning more NW towards Tampico Mexico Mon through Tue, possibly intensifying to a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will shift east on Wed, and produce S to SE return flow for most of the basin through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Troughing persists over the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over portions of the Greater Antilles, Leeward and Windward Islands, Trinidad and the southern Caribbean as far west as the ABC Islands. A 1010 mb low along the East Pacific monsoon trough is in the SW Caribbean near 10N77W. A trough is seen 20N61W to 13N65W. Scattered moderate to strong tstorms are over Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula in association with the low over the Bay of Campeche. Mid-upper level anticyclonic flow covers the NW Caribbean, and a surface ridge is protruding into the north-central Caribbean. As a result, most of the area north of 12N between 70W-83W is having fairly tranquil weather, other than isolated to scattered light showers for portions of the area. A ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW across the regional Atlc along 27N-28N to the NW Bahamas and will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean through early next week. Active weather associated with a broad area of low pressure across Central America and southern Mexico is expected along the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. The broad low will drift northwest through Tue. Broad troughing will develop across the W Atlc N of Puerto Rico late Tue and drift NE through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area near 31N69W extends SW as a stationary front to 29N73W to 30N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the stationary front extending 100 to 180 nm southeast of the boundary. Additionally convection is observed north of 26N between 62W-67W. A 1029 mb high centered near 34N42W remains in control across the basin. Scattered showers are noted north of 21N to 29N between 45W-53W. A ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW across the regional Atlc along 27N-28N to the NW Bahamas will shift east-southeast through Mon as a weak cold front moves off the southeastern U.S. and becomes stationary NW of the area. High pressure will build southward over the NW waters Mon night through Tue night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere over the forecast area. Broad low pres will develop across the W Atlc N of Puerto Rico late Tue and drift NE through Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres