000 AXNT20 KNHC 021025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early this week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface map along 15W from 11N southward. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the westward propagation of the wave, and it shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Convection is noted at the base of this wave, and also near 08N15W. A second tropical wave is along 28W from 11N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 04N to 06N between 27W and 29W. The TPW animation shows a surge of moistened air in association with the wave, that is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. A third tropical wave is along 46W from 12N southward. Convection is limited near the wave axis. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE to E winds ahead of the wave axis, and N of 07N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Guinea/ Sierra Leone border, then continues to near 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 04N35W to NE Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 20W and 30W, and within about 75 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 30W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 10W and 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A low pressure system is located over the southern Bay of Campeche near 20N95W. The strongest convection associated with this system is to NE of the low center. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a weak ridge, anchored on a 1014 mb high pressure located near 27N87W. Doppler radar indicates a line of showers and tstms between Apalachicola in the Florida panhandle and SE Louisiana. A recent scatterometer pass shows light to gentle winds across the northern Gulf, and just along the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 24N between 87W and 92W. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will shift E of the Gulf on Wed to produce a SE to S return flow for most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge N of the area is producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure persists across Central America, helping to induce some convective activity from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. Abundant moisture, with embedded showers is noted ahead of a mid- to upper level trough that extends from Puerto Rico to the ABC Islands. This is affecting the Lesser Antilles, where some shower activity has been reported. These weather conditions will persist today, keeping the likelihood of showers in the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. Moisture is also forecast to increase over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. This combined with the local effects and diurnal heating will produce scattered showers across the eastern part of the island in the morning, then across western Puerto Rico in the afternoon. Looking ahead, a broad low pressure is forecast to develop across the western Atlantic to the N of Puerto Rico late Tue and drift NE through Thu, helping to maintain a moderate to fresh tradewind flow across the basin. As of 0600 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed from 22N64W to Puerto Rico near 18N66W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1027 mb located near 33N41W dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters. A cold front enters the area near 31N73W, and extends SW to near 29N79W. A band of showers and thunderstorms is within about 120 nm ahead of the front N of 29N. Mainly moderate trades are noted along the southern periphery on the ridge based on scatterometer data. As previously mentioned, a broad low pressure is forecast to develop across the western Atlantic to the N of Puerto Rico late Tue and drift NE through Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR