000 AXNT20 KNHC 020533 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 133 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A couple of tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 12N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 12N southward. Convection is limited near the wave axis. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE to E winds ahead of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 09N13W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 03N35W to NE Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 75 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 24W and 36W. Similar convection is seen from 02N to 04N between 21W and 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A low pressure system is located over the southern Bay of Campeche. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a weak ridge. Doppler radar indicates the presence of some showers and thunderstorms just SE of Lake Okeechobee in the Florida peninsula and near SE Louisiana. A recent scatterometer pass shows light to gentle winds across the northern Gulf and just along the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 24N W of 87W, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will shift E of the Gulf Wed to produce SE to S return flow across all but NE portions of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge N of the area is producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure persists across Central America, helping to induce some convective activity from western Panama to Guatemala. Abundant moisture, with embedded showers is noted ahead of a mid-to upper level trough that extends from Puerto Rico to the ABC Islands. This is affecting the Lesser Antilles, where some shower activity has been reported. These weather conditions will persist on Sunday, keeping the likelihood of showers in the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. Moisture is also forecast to increase over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sun. This combined with the local effects and diurnal heating will produce scattered showers across the eastern part of the island in the morning, then in the afternoon across western Puerto Rico. Looking ahead, a broad low pres is forecast to develop across the western Atlantic to the N of Puerto Rico late Tue and drift NE through Thu, and help to maintain moderate to fresh tradewind flow across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1027 mb located near 32N41W dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters. As of 0300 UTC, a cold front enters the area near 31N74W, and extends SW to near 29N79W. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is ahead of the front N of 30N. Mainly moderate trades are noted along the southern periphery on the ridge based on scatterometer data. As previously mentioned, a broad low pres is forecast to develop across the western Atlantic to the N of Puerto Rico late Tue and drift NE through Thu For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR