000 AXNT20 KNHC 012351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 751 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ASCAT data indicate that the 1008 mb low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N 93W has become a little better defined today. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Bay of Campeche south of 24N. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week. The system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 12N southward. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-01N between 40W-47W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 13N southward. Isolated moderate convection is noted within the vicinity of the wave, from 05N-03N between 21W-27W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N21W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave along 04N between 25W-42W and begins once again on the west side of another tropical wave near 04N46W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Isolated moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ west of 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the special features section in regards to the low in the Bay of Campeche. Deep layered ridging continues across most of the Gulf of Mexico with the exception to the low in the Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms firing off along the Florida Panhandle are moving into the adjacent waters, along with some isolated thunderstorms moving off of northwest Cuba into the southeast Gulf. Light to gentle east-southeasterly winds are seen across the Gulf, with moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of a ridge across the northern Gulf through Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-upper level ridging covers the western Caribbean, whereas mid-upper level troughing covers the eastern Caribbean. A 1010 mb low is analyzed north of Colombia near 11N76W and scattered moderate convection is associated with it in the southern Caribbean. Otherwise, some strong convection off the eastern Yucatan and Belize coast is beginning to dissipate. Scattered to isolated strong convection is seen in the eastern Caribbean from 17N-13N between 60-67W. Scattered convection is also seen along the Greater Antilles with most of the activity staying on land. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the Caribbean. A ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through the weekend. Active weather associated with a broad area of low pressure across Central America and southern Mexico is expected to continue across the NW Caribbean this weekend. The broad low will drift northwest through Monday. Broad low pressure will develop across the west Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico late Tuesday and drift NE through Thursday and help to maintain moderate to fresh tradewind flow across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough digging off the east coast extends its axis to the western Atlantic. This is giving way to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N-15N between 46W-60W. There are also strong thunderstorms along the east-central Florida coast that are moving into adjacent waters. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high near 33N42W. A ridge along 29N will shift east-southeast this weekend as a weak cold front moves off the southeastern U.S. and becomes stationary just NW of the area. High pressure will build southward over the NW waters Monday night through Tuesday night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere over the forecast area. Broad low pres will develop across the W Atlc to the N of Puerto Rico late Tuesday and drift NE through Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR