000 AXNT20 KNHC 010604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) is affecting the northern part of Central America, Southern Mexico, and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall to sections of Belize, Guatemala and southern Mexico, and possibly also to western parts of El Salvador and Honduras, through the weekend. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 13N southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N to 06N between 37W and 44W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N17W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 04N33W, 05N39W, crossing the Equator along 44W/45W, to Brazil near 02S47W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 01N to 07N between 29W and 46W. Similar precipitation also covers the areas from 03N northward to Africa between 04W and 08W, from 03N to 07N between 15W and 18W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 46W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer ridging continues across the Gulf of Mexico and is bringing fair weather conditions across most of the Gulf. Some isolated thunderstorms are firing across the Florida Panhandle and moving into adjacent waters. The East Pacific monsoon trough is currently over the southern portions of Mexico with a 1009 mb low near 18N89W, along the Mexico/Guatemala/Belize border. This is help setting off numerous strong convection moving off the Yucatan and into the eastern portions of the Bay of Campeche from 21N-19N between the coast of the Yucatan to 92W. There is a surface trough analyzed over the central Bay of Campeche from 21N96W to 18N93W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen within 30 nm of this trough. Otherwise, light to gentle east- southeasterly winds are seen across the basin. Light smoke still lingers along the southern Mexican coast and western Yucatan. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will persist, to the south of a ridge that is in the northern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. Expect fresh east to southeast winds in the south-central and SW part of the Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure, in SE Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, will move shift westward slowly, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. Expect active weather from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico into southern Mexico. Some of the active weather may linger into Monday near the coast of Veracruz. It is possible that low pressure may develop in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and drift W from Saturday through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-upper level ridging continues from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean. This is bringing mostly fair weather across the area. However, thunderstorms resulting from the sea breeze is firing off across Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Strong convection is also seen near the East Pacific monsoon trough which is currently across Central America and into northern Colombia. Most of the convection is near the coast but not moving into the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen in Puerto Rico, the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles as a mid-upper level trough digs across this area. Most of this activity is south of 19N and east of 65W. Moderate to fresh winds are seen in the eastern Caribbean in association with the convective activity. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are seen in the central and western basin with light winds in the southern Caribbean. A ridge along 28N-29N will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean through the weekend, except mainly fresh winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Very active weather will continue to develop about a broad area of low pressure persisting over Central America, the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula. The broad low will gradually shift westward into the southwest Gulf of Mexico through Sun with associated weather accompanying it. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through the eastern Atlantic Ocean, from the Madeira Archipelago, to 26N24W, to a 25N37W cyclonic circulation center, to 29N54W, to a 22N66W cyclonic circulation center, beyond the eastern part of the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. A surface trough is along 26N62W 24N66W 22N69W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N northward between 50W and 72W. The southernmost part of a stationary front passes through 32N32W to 31N34W. The stationary front is dissipating from 31N34W to 29N40W, and to 26N45W. Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. The current 28N/29N ridge, that is between 50W and 79W, will shift slightly east-southeastward through the weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to move to just offshore the SE U.S.A. tonight, and become stationary into early next week. A middle level to upper level trough will support unsettled weather in the far SE part of the area and adjacent NE Caribbean Sea through tonight. A new area of high pressure will build southward from the Mid-Atlantic region in the NW waters from Monday night through Tuesday night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt