000 AXNT20 KNHC 312353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) is affecting the northern portion of Central America as well as Southern Mexico and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall to portions of Belize, Guatemala and southern Mexico, and possibly also to western portions El Salvador and Honduras, through the weekend. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 14N southward. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen from 07N- 03N between 34W- 41W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough as seen in the computer models. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 04N23W. The ITCZ begins near 04N23W to 04N38W and continues west of a tropical wave from 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and south of the monsoon trough from 06N-03N between 19W-12W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the ITCZ from 07N-02N between 29W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer ridging continues across the Gulf of Mexico and is bringing fair weather conditions across most of the Gulf. Some isolated thunderstorms are firing across the Florida Panhandle and moving into adjacent waters. The East Pacific monsoon trough is currently over the southern portions of Mexico with a 1009 mb low near 18N89W, along the Mexico/Guatemala/Belize border. This is help setting off numerous strong convection moving off the Yucatan and into the eastern portions of the Bay of Campeche from 21N-19N between the coast of the Yucatan to 92W. There is a surface trough analyzed over the central Bay of Campeche from 21N96W to 18N93W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen within 30 nm of this trough. Otherwise, light to gentle east- southeasterly winds are seen across the basin. Light smoke still lingers along the southern Mexican coast and western Yucatan. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will persist south of a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tuesday, except for fresh east to southeast winds in the south-central and SW Gulf. A broad area of low pressure across SE Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula will move westward over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend bringing active weather across the Bay of Campeche, and into southern Mexico. Some of the active weather may linger into Monday near the coast of Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-upper level ridging continues from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean. This is bringing mostly fair weather across the area. However, thunderstorms resulting from the sea breeze is firing off across Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Strong convection is also seen near the East Pacific monsoon trough which is currently across Central America and into northern Colombia. Most of the convection is near the coast but not moving into the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen in Puerto Rico, the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles as a mid-upper level trough digs across this area. Most of this activity is south of 19N and east of 65W. Moderate to fresh winds are seen in the eastern Caribbean in association with the convective activity. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are seen in the central and western basin with light winds in the southern Caribbean. The ridge will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure persisting over Central America, the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula will help to produce showers and thunderstorms across the western Caribbean and Yucatan Channel during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Deep-layered ridging persists east of Florida, leading to mostly fair weather for the Florida Straits, NW and Central Bahamas, and the Atlantic waters north of 25N west of 68W. Mid to upper-level troughing extends from Hispaniola and Puerto Rico northeastward to 30N55W. A surface trough extends from 27N61W to 23N66W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within the vicinity of this feature. A stationary front continues to remain in the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N36W and stretches southwest to 27N45W. A high pressure is also seen near 29N66W. High pressure ridging along 28N-29N will shift slightly east- southeast through the weekend as a weak cold front moves to just offshore the southeastern U.S. and becomes stationary into early next week. A new area of high pressure will build southward from the Mid-Atlantic region over the NW waters on Monday night through Tuesday night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected over the forecast area. A mid to upper-level trough will support unsettled weather to continue over the far SE part of the area through this evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR