000 AXNT20 KNHC 311023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1010 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists in Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during the next few days. The area of greatest concern, from late Thursday through Saturday, includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca. An area of low pressure that is along the East Pacific monsoon trough will be absorbed into the CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Isolated flash flooding still is possible throughout the remainder of Central America during the next few days, in addition to the rains for Guatemala and southern Mexico. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 12N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 01N to 08N between 34W and 41W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough as seen in the computer models. The wave is within the western edge of a moisture plume, according to total precipitable water imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N18W and 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 03N34W, to 03N29W and 03N35W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 03N to 06N between 07W and 13W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 09N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The East Pacific Ocean monsoon trough has moved northward. It spans southern Mexico/the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Guatemala, and Honduras. Numerous strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 21N southward between the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Mexico along 97W/98W. Large-scale deep layer anticyclonic wind flow is bringing fair weather to most of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Active weather, that is associated with a broad area of low pressure in Central America, is expected to shift into the SW Gulf of Mexico during this weekend. It is likely that a trough will develop there, and a low pressure area may form along the trough. Moderate easterly winds will persist to the south of a ridge that is in the northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 26N66W cyclonic circulation center, toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, cover the Caribbean Sea from 81W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Belize. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that extend from the Yucatan Peninsula to Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers currently are in NE Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, at the border areas. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the areas from western Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula. A ridge that is to the north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds in the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure, that is persisting in Central America and the Gulf of Honduras, will enhance rainshowers/thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea and in the Yucatan Channel during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from one cyclonic circulation center that is near 26N39W, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 29N55W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near 26N66W, and then southwestward beyond the Windward Passage. A stationary front passes through 32N35W, to 28N40W, 27N43W, and 24N45W. Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 55W. A surface trough is along 29N62W 25N63W 20N67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N northward between 55W and 74W. A 28N/29N ridge will remain in place during the next several days. Expect fairly tranquil conditions in the forecast waters. A middle level trough will support unsettled weather in the far SE part of the area from through this evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt