000 AXNT20 KNHC 310540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists in Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during the next few days. The area of greatest concern, from late Thursday through Saturday, includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca. An area of low pressure that is along the East Pacific monsoon trough will be absorbed into the CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Isolated flash flooding still is possible throughout the remainder of Central America during the next few days, in addition to the rains for Guatemala and southern Mexico. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 12N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 01N to 07N between 30W and 40W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough as seen in the computer models. The wave is within the western edge of a moisture plume, according to total precipitable water imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N16W and 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 03N34W, crossing the Equator along 40W, to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 03N to 06N between 05W and 14W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward from 60W eastward, including in the coastal waters of South America between 49W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... The East Pacific Ocean monsoon trough has moved northward. It spans southern Mexico/the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Guatemala. Numerous strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 20N southward from 94W eastward. Large-scale deep layer anticyclonic wind flow is bringing fair weather to most of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Very active weather, that is associated with the broad area of low pressure and the monsoon trough, is expected to shift from SE Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, where weak low pressure may develop. The current SW N Atlantic Ocean ridge, that is along 28N, extends into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Expect moderate easterly winds to the south of the ridge through Monday. A broad area of low pressure across Central America, in combination with a diurnal trough moving off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, will enhance easterly winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 26N66W cyclonic circulation center, toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from 81W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that extend from the Yucatan Peninsula to Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Warming cloud top temperatures and convective debris clouds, from the earlier and already- dissipated precipitation, cover the areas from eastern Guatemala to Honduras. A W-to-E oriented ridge, along 28N/29N, will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure, persisting in Central America and the Gulf of Honduras, will provide favorable conditions for scattered to numerous rainshowers/thunderstorms across the western Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Channel during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from one cyclonic circulation center that is near 26N39W, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 29N55W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near 26N66W, and then southwestward beyond the Windward Passage. A stationary front passes through 32N35W, to 28N40W, and 24N45W. Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 55W. A surface trough is along 29N62W 24N66W 20N68W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N northward between 55W and 74W. A ridge continues along 28N/29N, and it will remain in place during the next several days. Expect fairly tranquil conditions in much of the forecast waters. A middle to upper level trough will support unsettled weather in the the far SE part of the area from tonight through Friday evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt