000 AXNT20 KNHC 302346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 746 PM EDT Thu May 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists in Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during the next few days. The area of greatest concern, from late Thursday through Saturday, includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca, as an area of low pressure that is along the East Pacific monsoon trough is absorbed into the CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Isolated flash flooding still is possible throughout the remainder of Central America during the next few days, in addition to the rains for Guatemala and southern Mexico. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 12N-01N. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 100 nm mostly to the east of this feature and south of 07N. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough as diagnosed by computer models. The wave is within the western edge of a moisture plume that is seen in total precipitable water imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W to 03N34W, then continues west of the tropical wave near 02N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N- 01N between 08W-33W mostly along and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered ridge continues to cover the Gulf of Mexico bringing fair conditions across the basin. Surface ridging is seen over the Gulf from high pressure in the western Atlantic. Some moderate to strong convection is moving into the southern Bay of Campeche from ongoing activity across southern Mexico. Mostly light to gentle southeasterly winds are seen in the Gulf with some moderate winds in the west central basin. The high pressure across the SW Atlantic will maintain moderate easterly winds south of the ridge through Monday. A broad area of low pressure across Central America in combination with a diurnal trough moving off the coast of Yucatan each night will enhance easterly winds in the SW Gulf this weekend. Very active weather associated with the broad area of low pressure could shift from southeastern Mexico and into the southwestern Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough currently moving over the western Atlantic is digging across the northern Caribbean. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to the coast of Panama, into southern Belize and southern Mexico. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from northern Colombia to the western Caribbean near the Nicaragua and Honduras eastern border. Convection is also seen over the Greater Antilles and portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated moderate convection seen over the northern and central Caribbean. Winds in the northern Caribbean gentle to moderate out of the southeast, with light to gentle trades in the central and eastern basin. High pressure ridge extending W to E along 28N-29N will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure persisting over Central America and the Gulf of Honduras will provide favorable conditions for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms across the western Caribbean during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N37W and extends south to 24N44W. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N62W to 20N69W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A surface ridge prevails across much of the basin. A ridge continues along 28N-29N and will remain in place the next several days maintaining fairly tranquil conditions over much of the forecast waters. A middle to upper-level trough will support unsettled weather over the the far SE part of the area through Friday evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR