000 AXNT20 KNHC 301801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 PM EDT Thu May 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists in Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during the next few days. The area of greatest concern, from late Thursday through Saturday, includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca, as an area of low pressure that is along the East Pacific monsoon trough is absorbed into the CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Isolated flash flooding still is possible throughout the remainder of Central America during the next few days, in addition to the rains for Guatemala and southern Mexico. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 14N-00N. Scattered moderate convection is seen 180 nm on either side of the trough axis and south of 08N. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, as diagnosed by computer models. The wave is within the western edge of a moisture plume that is seen in total precipitable water imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone 07N12W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 04N31W, and continues from 03N37W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-02N between 13W-29W along the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered ridge continues to cover the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, surface ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the basin. Mostly fair weather prevails across the basin. Moderate SE winds continues across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure extending into the northern Gulf will maintain moderate easterly winds over most of the basin through Mon. A broad area of low pressure across Central America in combination with a diurnal trough moving off the coast of Yucatan each night will enhance easterly winds in the SW Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough over the western Atlantic extends its axis Southwest across the Bahamas into the Windward Passage. Numerous moderate convection is noted across the Greater Antilles from Jamaica to Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and surrounding waters. Scattered shower activity extends into the Leeward Islands, from Dominica to the Virgin Islands. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, to the coast of Costa Rica and beyond the coast of Nicaragua, toward the coastal waters of El Salvador and Mexico. Scattered moderate convection extends from north of Colombia to the western Caribbean near the Nicaragua and Honduras eastern border. High pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure over Central America will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N35W to 25N42W, curving to a dissipating stationary front from 25N42W to 25N49W. A surface trough is from 29N62W to 24N64W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough and the frontal boundary north of 26N to 31N. A surface ridge prevails across much of the basin. Upper trough to the western Atlantic is enhancing convection across the Caribbean and extending north to 22N between 59W-70W. A ridge will remain in place the next several days maintaining fairly tranquil conditions over much of the forecast waters. An upper-level trough will support unsettled weather over the the far SE part of the area through Fri evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres