951 AXNT20 KNHC 301038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu May 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists in Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during the next few days. The area of greatest concern, from late Thursday through Saturday, includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca, as an area of low pressure that is along the East Pacific monsoon trough is absorbed into the CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Isolated flash flooding still is possible throughout the remainder of Central America during the next few days, in addition to the rains for Guatemala and southern Mexico. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W from 15N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 02N to 09N between 30W and 37W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, as diagnosed by computer models. The wave is within the western edge of a moisture plume that is seen in total precipitable water imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N17W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N31W, 03N35W, to 01N43W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 02N northward between 05W and 09W, and from 04N to 07N between 11W and 18W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered ridge continues to cover the Gulf of Mexico, from NE to SW. Mostly fair weather prevails across the basin. Moderate SE winds cover the eastern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure, extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico, will maintain moderate easterly winds in most of the basin through Saturday. A broad area of low pressure in Central America, and a diurnal trough moving off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, will enhance NE winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes from NW Cuba to Guatemala. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, are covering the areas that extend from 15N to 23N between 63W and 83W, including: Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and surrounding islands and waters. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters of The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, to the coast of Panama near 10N80W, across and beyond the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, toward the coastal waters of El Salvador. Numerous strong rainshowers are in NW Venezuela in Lake Maracaibo. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in Colombia from 06N northward between Colombia's border with Venezuela and Colombia's border with Panama. High pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds in the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure in Central America will produce widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 33N25W cyclonic circulation center, through 29N34W, to a 28N53W cyclonic circulation center, to a 28N67W cyclonic circulation center, toward NW Cuba. A stationary front passes through 32N36W to 25N43W, curving to 24N46W and 25N50W. A surface trough 30N62W 27N63W 24N63W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW and N of the stationary front, and elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 72W. A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 28N68W, to Lake Okeechobee in Florida. A ridge along 28N will remain in place during the next several days, and produce fairly benign marine weather conditions through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt