000 AXNT20 KNHC 300602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu May 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists in Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during the next few days. The area of greatest concern, from late Thursday through Saturday, includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca, as an area of low pressure that is along the East Pacific monsoon trough is absorbed into the CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Isolated flash flooding still is possible throughout the remainder of Central America during the next few days, in addition to the rains for Guatemala and southern Mexico. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 15N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 02N to 09N between 31W and 38W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, as diagnosed by computer models. The wave is within the western edge of a moisture plume that is seen in total precipitable water imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N24W, 05N29W, crossing the Equator along 46W, to the coast of Brazil along 48W/49W, just to the south of the Equator. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 04N northward from 03W eastward, from 03N northward between 07W and 09W, and from 04N to 07N from 17W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered ridge continues to cover the Gulf of Mexico, from NE to SW. Mostly fair weather prevails across the basin. Moderate SE winds cover the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE winds are found in the western Gulf of Mexico north of 22N and west of 92W. High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE return flow in the western Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The wind speeds will diminish by late week, as a ridge weakens and drifts southward to 28N. A diurnal trough, forming in the Yucatan Peninsula, will support fresh to moderate E to NE winds each night as it moves into the SW Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over the SW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes from NW Cuba to Guatemala. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, are covering the areas that extend from 15N to 23N between 63W and 83W, including: Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and surrounding islands and waters. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, to the coast of Panama near 10N80W, across and beyond the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, toward the coastal waters of El Salvador. Numerous strong rainshowers are in NW Venezuela in Lake Maracaibo, and in northern Colombia from 07N to 10.5N between 70.5W and 75.5W. A weak and narrow ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across much of the basin through the weekend. Broad low pressure that spans Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean waters will help to produce rainshowers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea for the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 33N25W cyclonic circulation center, through 29N34W, to a 28N53W cyclonic circulation center, to a 28N67W cyclonic circulation center, toward NW Cuba. A stationary front passes through 32N38W to 28N40W, curving to 25N43W and 24N48W. A shear line is along 25N53W to 26N62W. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 26N61W. Rainshowers are possible to the NW and N of the stationary front, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 28N68W, to 28N77W, beyond Florida along 28N, into the Gulf of Mexico. A weak and narrow W-to-E ridge, extending along 28N, will remain in place through Sunday. Quiescent winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the first couple days of the 2019 hurricane season. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen