000 AXNT20 KNHC 292348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during the next few days. The area of greatest concern late Thursday through Saturday includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca, as an area of low pressure along the East Pacific monsoon trough is absorbed into the CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. In addition to Guatemala and southern Mexico, isolated flash flooding is still possible throughout the remainder of Central America during the next few days. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was moved back 1 degree as newly available data indicate the previous analysis was slightly too far west. The wave is analyzed along 31W/32W from 13N southward. For the past 24-48 hours, the wave has been moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area from 03N-08N between 30W-34W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, as diagnosed by computer models. The wave lies within the western edge of a moisture plume seen in total precipitable water imagery. The weakening Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was along 66/67W at 29/1200 UTC has been removed from the analysis as of 1800 UTC today. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N17W to 06N20W. The ITCZ begins near 06N20W to 06N28W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-28W. Farther east, scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 01N-07N between 06W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered ridge continues to cover the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, mostly fair weather prevails across the basin. Moderate SE winds cover the eastern Gulf, while fresh SE winds are found in the western Gulf north of 22N and west of 92W. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that smoke from fires in Mexico is present in the SW Gulf west of a line from Coatzacoalcos to Brownsville. The smoke is creating hazy conditions in this area. Visibilities as low as 4 miles have recently been reported. High pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE return flow over the western Gulf through tonight. Winds will diminish by late week as a high pressure ridge weakens and drifts southward to near 28N. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to moderate E to NE winds each night as it moves into the southwestern Gulf. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the Central American Gyre (CAG) for more information. A broad area of upper-level divergence coupled with low-mid level troughing covers the western Caribbean as well as the north- central Caribbean over the Greater Antilles. As a result, scattered to numerous moderate rainshowers with embedded isolated thunderstorms cover the area from 15N-21N between 65W-83W, including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and portions of Cuba. Isolated to scattered showers extend east of that over the Virgin and northern Leeward Islands. Isolated showers and tstorms are also south of 15N between 73W-80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, southern Costa Rica, western and northern Nicaragua, and much of Honduras, with more isolated activity over Guatemala and southern Mexico. The convection in NW Venezuela and N Colombia is very close to being over the Caribbean Sea, south of 12N between 69W- 75W. The convection over Honduras may also be affecting waters just off the N coast of Honduras. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across much of the Caribbean. A weak and narrow high pressure ridge along 27N-28N will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across much of the basin through the weekend. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will help to produce showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean for the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-level ridge is centered over Florida, creating fair weather N of 24N between Florida and 68W. A 1018 mb surface high is near 27N71W. Ridging over this area is expected to persist through Sunday, leading to quiescent winds and slight to moderate seas. A weak upper-level low near 29N67W is providing scattered clouds and isolated showers east of 68W from 25N-29N. A stationary front enters the central Atlantic waters near 32N38W and extends SW to 25N43W to 24N47W. A shear line extends from 24N47W to a 1016 mb surface low near 26N63W. Isolated to scattered showers are near the low and shear line from 24N-28N between 51W-64W. Over the east Atlantic, two surface troughs are analyzed - one from 30N34W to 24N31W and the other from 31N18N to 28N23W. No significant weather accompanies the first trough, but overcast skies and light showers surround the trough that is farther east. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen