000 AXNT20 KNHC 290603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during the next few days. Heavy rain is likely for parts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua through Wednesday, as the current 1008 mb low pressure center that is in the eastern Pacific near 11N88W, moves inland. The CAG is expected strengthen as the monsoon trough moves northward. The heavy rain threat will increase, for the areas that are covered from SE Mexico to Honduras, late this week. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Expect the greatest rainfall amounts in parts of Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua during the next few days. The heavy rainfall amounts are likely at times, also, in parts of southern Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Honduras. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 29/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.03 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 13N southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 03N to 08N between 24W and 30W. A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are inland in Venezuela are from 07N northward between 61W and 69W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea, near 11N15W. The monsoon trough continues from 11N15W to 07N19W, to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 05N33W, to just to the south of the Equator along 49W/50W, at the coast of Brazil. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 03N to 06N between 12W and 15W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a NE Gulf of Mexico 1015 mb low pressure center, that is near 29N86W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico and in the SE U.S.A. will maintain moderate to fresh SE wind flow in the western Gulf of Mexico, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through the end of the week. A diurnal trough forming in the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds each night as it moves into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the SW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level to upper level trough extends from the Florida Keys, across NW Cuba, across and beyond the northern half of Guatemala, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough extends from 11N71W in NW Venezuela, across northern sections of Colombia, to 10N80W, and then across and beyond the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that stretches from northern Colombia to Nicaragua, and to Guatemala. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the east of the upper level trough, within 90 nm on either side of the line that runs from 11N77W to 16N78W to 17N82w. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, are covering the areas that extend from 17N to 23N between 63W and 82W, including: Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and surrounding islands and waters. A weak and narrow ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across much of the basin through the week. Broad low pressure, in Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean waters, will help to produce rainshowers and thunderstorms inn the western Caribbean Sea for the next several days. A tropical wave will approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by late week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras and the adjacent Yucatan Basin from Friday night through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front passes through 32N39W to 25N43W to 24N47W. A shear line continues from 24N47W to 25N54W, to 23N65W and to 23N68W, to 23N78W, between the Bahamas and Cuba. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 40W and 80W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 29/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.29 in Bermuda. A stationary front is about 100 nm to the NNW of Bermuda. A surface ridge passes through 32N44W, to a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 29N52W, to a 1017 mb high pressure center is near 28N73W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the N and NW of the cold front/shear line. One surface trough is along 24N40W 21N40W 18N38W. Rainshowers are within 240 nm on either side of trough. A second surface trough is along 25N30W 31N33W. Rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either side of trough. A weak and narrow ridge, extending W-to-E along about 28N will persist through Thu. The ridge will slowly lift northward and strengthen Fri through Sun, which will allow fresh winds to develop over the waters S of 22N. Long period N to NE swell will continue to move through the area Atlc waters through Thu.The current surface ridge will persist along 28N through Thursday. The ridge will shift slightly northward, from Friday through on Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt