000 AXNT20 KNHC 282353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... Heavy rain is likely for portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua through Wednesday, as an area of low pressure in the eastern Pacific near 11N88W moves inland. Later in the week, the Central American Gyre is expected to strengthen as the monsoon trough moves north. This will increase the heavy rain threat for Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras and SE Mexico late this week. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 12N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis from 03N-07N. The wave corresponds nicely with the position of a 700 mb trough, as diagnosed by the GFS and ECMWF models. The CIMSS total precipitable water and low to mid level layered precipitable water products show a moisture maximum along and behind the wave axis. Radar from the Windward Islands and CIMSS total precipitable water imagery indicate that the tropical wave that was previously analyzed along 58W at 28/0600 UTC is now along 62W at of 28/1800 UTC. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over the southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and NE Venezuela. The tropical wave will continue to weaken over the next 24 hrs as it encounters a mid-level ridge over the SE Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N17W to 06N22W. The ITCZ begins near 06N22W to 05N27W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 05N30W to 03N41W to the coast of Brazil near 01S49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-03N between 01W-12W. Scattered moderate showers are noted from 02N-08N between 14W-23W. Scattered showers are also seen along and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues across the Gulf along with a strong subtropical mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Gulf. Dry low to mid level air and fair weather conditions continue across the basin. A 1016 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf near 29N86W. Scatterometer data depicts light east-southeast winds near the surface high pressure in the NE Gulf. In the central and western Gulf, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are observed. On visible satellite, very small areas of smoke from fires in Mexico are seen moving into the southern Bay of Campeche, but this smoke does not appear to be significantly affecting visibilities, based on available surface observations in the area. High pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf through Wednesday night. Wind will diminish by late week as high pressure weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes over the northern Gulf. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to occasionally strong winds each night as it moves into the southwestern Gulf. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level ridge over the SE Caribbean is keeping skies relatively clear from 12N-15N between 64W-71W. A tropical wave is producing scattered showers over Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands. A strong mid-level ridge also prevails from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across South Florida to the Bahamas. In between the two ridges, abundant mid to upper level moisture is being transported from Central America northeastward toward Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 16N between 66W-82W. The strongest convection is just west of Jamaica, over Hispaniola and in the Mona Passage. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms continue to affect Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is also seen in the SW Caribbean from 11N-13N between 78W-79W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere between 72W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over Costa Rica. Scattered tstorms are seen over land throughout much of the remainder of Central America. Scatterometer depicts gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean. A weak and narrow high pressure ridge along about 28N will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across much of the basin through the week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean for the next several days. A weak tropical wave in the SE Caribbean along 62W will continue to weaken during the next 24 hr as it runs into a mid- level ridge. Another tropical wave will approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by late week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras and the adjacent Yucatan Basin Fri night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See section above for details about the tropical wave currently moving across the basin. A strong E-W surface ridge prevails along 28N from the western Atlantic to Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with strong mid-level ridging over Florida and the Bahamas. Despite the ridging, scattered tstorms are seen over NE Florida, due mainly to sea-breeze interactions. A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 32N39W and extends SW to 25N43W to 24N47W. The boundary continues as a stationary front to 24N55W, then as a shear line to 23N79W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of the cold and stationary fronts. A surface trough with isolated showers is analyzed along 39W from 19N-24N. Surface ridging prevails across the E Atlantic to the E of the cold front. The weak and narrow high pressure ridge extending W to E along 28N will persist through Thursday. The ridge will slowly lift northward and strengthen Friday through Sunday, which will allow fresh winds to develop over the waters S of 22N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen