000 AXNT20 KNHC 281745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1719 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre persists across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall in parts of Central America through Wednesday, which could lead to a very significant rainfall event for this area. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W from 11N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. There are some showers within 50 nm of the trough on either side especially near the ITCZ. A tropical wave is now inland across northwest Central America and the central Caribbean 72W from 14N-03N slowly moving west around 05-10 knots. This feature is weakening and there is no convective activity associated with it at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 05N26W. The ITCZ then continues east of a tropical wave near 05N28W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 25W-38W and south of the monsoon trough from 07N-03N between 11W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues across the Gulf along with a strong subtropical mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf. This is ushering in dry low to mid level air and fair weather conditions across the basin. A 1016 mb high pressure is centered in the northeast Gulf near 28N85W. Meanwhile, a trough in the Bay of Campeche is seen along 94W from 23N to 18N. Scatterometer data depicts light east- southeasterly winds near the surface high pressure in the northeast Gulf. In the central and western Gulf, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are observed. On visible satellite, very small areas of dense smoke from wild fires in Mexico are seen moving into the southern Bay of Campeche. High pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow over the western Gulf through Wednesday night. Wind speeds will diminish by late week as high pressure weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes over the northern Gulf. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to occasionally strong winds each night as it moves into the southwestern Gulf. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level trough extends across Central America to the Greater Antilles. A surface trough is seen across the southern Bahamas to western Hispaniola, from 23N69W to 18N76W. Meanwhile, the monsoon trough continues across the southern Caribbean from northeast Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Strong convection is moving off the coast of Colombia and into the Caribbean, south of 11N between 75W-78W. Elsewhere, the northern basin is seen scattered moderate to isolated strong convection particularly between Honduras/Nicaragua and Cuba. Some of these storms are approaching Jamaica. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico and the American Virgin Islands are experiencing numerous showers and thunderstorms. Isolated showers are approaching the Lesser Antilles. Scatterometer depicts gentle trades across most of the Caribbean, with moderate trades north of Venezuela. A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across much of the basin through the week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean for the next several days. A weak tropical wave over the central Caribbean will dissipate later today. Another tropical wave will approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by late week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras and the adjacent Yucatan Basin Fri night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the basin. A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N41W and extends to the southwest to 24N48W. From that point, the boundary stalls and extends to the west near 23N68W. Showers are seen within 50 nm of the cold front, with showers and isolated thunderstorms seen along the stationary front. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 25N45W to 21N47W. Another surface trough is seen from 25N40W to 18N38W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin. A high pressure ridge extending across the northern waters will persist along 28N through Thursday. The ridge will slowly lift northward and strengthen Friday through Sunday, which will allow fresh winds to develop over the waters south of 22N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR