000 AXNT20 KNHC 281051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America... The Central American Gyre persists across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall in parts of Central America during the next few days. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Expect the greatest rainfall amounts in parts of Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua during the next few days. The heavy rainfall amounts are likely at times, also, in parts of southern Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Honduras. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 14N southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Nearby rainshowers are more connected to the ITCZ precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 12N southward between 55W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 04N30W 03N37W, crossing the Equator along 44W, to the Equator along 46W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N to 08N between 10W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong deep-layered ridge covers the Gulf of Mexico, with dry low to mid level air in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the GOES- 16 water vapor channels. Fair weather prevails across the basin. A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the north of the NW Bahamas, across Florida along 28N, to a 1016 mb high pressure center that is near 29N86W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface low pressure is in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening rainshowers cover the area that extends from Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 22N between 90W and 96W. High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico and in the SE U.S.A. will maintain moderate to fresh SE wind flow in the western Gulf of Mexico, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through the end of the week. A diurnal trough forming in the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds each night as it moves into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the SW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level to upper level trough extends from the Florida Keys, across NW Cuba, across the northern half of Guatemala, into the eastern Pacific Ocean about 150 nm to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W in northern Colombia, to 10N80W, and then across and beyond southern sections of Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in northern Colombia and NW Venezuela from 07N to 11N between 72W and 75W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from the coast of Colombia near 08N to 16N between 76W and 81W. Strong rainshowers are reaching the SW corner of Nicaragua and extreme NW Costa Rica. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, are covering the areas that extend from 18N to 22N between 63W and 81W, including: Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and surrounding islands and waters. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across much of the basin through the week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean will generate rainshowers and thunderstorms in much of the western Caribbean Sea through late week. A tropical wave, that is along 57W/58W, will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today. The wave will move across the central Caribbean Sea from Tuesday night through Wednesday. The wave will be losing its identity after Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front passes through 32N40W to 26N44W to 24N50W. A surface trough continues from 24N50W to 23N63W. A shear line continues from 23N63W to 23N70W, across the Bahamas to 22N70W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 40W and 80W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 29N60W. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 29N74W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front/trough northward, and from the cold front/trough westward. A surface ridge passes through 32N32W to 27N33W. A surface trough is along 26N39W 22N38W 18N37W, based on the most recent scatterometer data. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with the trough. The current surface ridge will persist along 28N through Thursday. The ridge will shift slightly northward, from Friday through on Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt