000 AXNT20 KNHC 271730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... The Central American Gyre persists across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific and SW Caribbean today. This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall across portions of Central America during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. Strong convection has shifted over water overnight and this morning, and was occurring across the SW Caribbean offshore of Costa Rica and extreme southeast Nicaragua. As daytime heating ensues, look for this activity to begin to initiate over land. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the east tropical Atlantic, and is analyzed along 25W-26W from 13N-03N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis generally south of 08N. A tropical wave continues moving west across the tropical Atlantic, with axis along 56W-57W and from 15N-00N. The wave is moving at around 15 kt. A few clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the wave axis, mainly south of 10N. More active convection is occurring in convergence ahead of the wave across portions of Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits Western Africa and passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to near 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from near 04N23W to 01.5N40W to the coast of NE Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is present from the monsoon trough southward to 03N between the Africa coast and 24W. Additionally, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 00N to the African coast from 10W eastward across the Gulf of Guinea. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from 28W to the coast of Brazil south of 05N. GULF OF MEXICO... Fair weather prevails across the Gulf at this time. A surface ridge continues across the basin, extending from weak 1020 mb highs across the SW N Atlc along 29N westward across the Florida peninsula to a 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf near 28.5N84.5W. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh ENE wind flow through the Straits of Florida with wind then turning sharply anticyclonically across the rest of the basin E of 90W, becoming SW across the Big Bend region. Offshore observations show light SE winds across the SW Gulf becoming moderate southerly winds across all of the NW Gulf. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires is not obvious in satellite imagery across the Gulf at this time, and morning observations along the Mexican coast were only reporting slight to moderate haze. A few streets of shallow cumulus clouds with possible light precipitation are embedded in the southerly flow across NW portions of the Gulf and along the upper coast of Mexico. Otherwise skies are fair to clear across the basin. High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and northeast Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow over the western Gulf and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through Thu. A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon will move westward off the peninsula and across the southwestern Gulf late at night through the mornings, and will support locally fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Smoke from ongoing fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of the southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the early part of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough extends from the central Bahamas to the Yucatan Peninsula, and is promoting unstable atmospheric conditions across much of the Caribbean west of 78W. Scattered moderate to strong convection continues across the southwest Caribbean offshore of the Central American coasts to about 17N. Late morning scatterometer data shows a weak trough developing from the coastal waters just offshore of the Nicaragua-Honduras border to just southwest of Andres Island. Gusty winds in squalls are evident in visible satellite imagery across this area between 15N and 17N. See the above section for more information on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. High pressure across the SW N Atlc is building modestly SW across the Bahamas and much of Cuba today and yielding fresh ENE winds in the lee of Cuba. Narrow bands of scattered moderate convection continues south of Cuba and extends to the Yucatan Channel where they are weakening. Meanwhile, fair weather prevails across most of the rest of the Caribbean east of 75W where moderate E to ESE tradewinds prevail, while fresh winds are seen offshore of Colombia. A cluster of moisture can be seen moving WNW across Puerto Rico at this time, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms that have begun to increase in intensity of recent. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through at least the early part of the week. The tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands today will move across the rest of the Tropical N Atlantic waters through tonight, then across the southeastern Caribbean Tue, then across the central Caribbean Tue night through Wed night while weakening. Strong N swell generated across the NW Atlc will reach the NE Caribbean Passages late this afternoon and evening and build overnight through Tue as it moves in narrow rays through eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for information about the tropical waves currently moving across the basin. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N44W and extends southwestward to near 24N55W where it become near stationary and meanders W-SW to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm southeast of the front to the east of 50W, while scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen elsewhere along the stationary front. A weak surface ridge prevails NW of the front along 29N. A broad surface ridge extends from NE of the Azores southwestward into the eastern Atlc to the east of this cold front, to about 25N42W. Morning scatterometer data showed mainly moderate NE to ENE tradewinds across the tropical Atlc, except fresh trades with and behind the tropical wave approaching the Windwards. The cold front will move slowly eastward for the next 24-30 hours before supporting energy lifts N and out of the discussion area, leaving the front to quickly stall and weaken to a trough. along 40W. The meandering stationary portion of the front will linger for another 12-18 hours before dissipating. The ridge north of the front along 29N will persist through Tu then shift slightly northward Wed through Fri night. As mentioned above, strong northerly swell associated with a low pressure system over the north central Atlc will move into the Atlc waters today and reach the NE Caribbean Islands late this afternoon and evening. Seas will build to 6-8 ft east of 70W today and then diminish slowly tonight and Tue. This swell will produce large breaking waves along the exposed Atlantic coasts of the NE Caribbean Islands tonight and Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Stripling