000 AXNT20 KNHC 261044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. Please refer to the local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east tropical Atlantic analyzed along 22W from 11N-00N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly 70 nm on either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic, with axis along 48W-50W and from 12N-01S. The wave is moving at about 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 06N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N25W to 00N47W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon trough from 08N-05N between 17W-21W. Scattered showers are also seen along and north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 34N71W. Fair weather prevails under this ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle east-southeast winds in the northern Gulf, with moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche and the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W. Two trough in the basin, one extends south from the FL Panhandle to 25N84W, and the second trough in the Bay of Campeche near 21N90W to 17N92W. Scattered showers near the vicinity of both troughs are possible. High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow over the northwest Gulf through Mon, then increase slightly to moderate to occasionally strong Mon night through early Wed as low pressure deepens over the central U.S. The flow then diminishes to gentle to moderate speeds on Thu. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will occur each night over the southwestern Gulf as the nocturnal surface trough moves off the the Yucatan Peninsula to the southwestern Gulf in the mornings. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of the southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the early part of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered convection continues across the southern Central American countries with some of this activity entering the southern Carribbean. See the section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the northwest Carribbean south of Cuba extending into Jamaica and Hispaniola. Light showers are also in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin, with moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. Additionally, fresh winds are seen off the coast of Nicaragua. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through the early part of the week. A tropical wave east of the area near 50W will move across the Tropical N Atlantic Sun through Mon night and into the eastern Caribbean Tue through Wed while it loses its identity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves, currently moving across the central Atlantic. A cold front is dropping across the central and western Atlantic, entering the waters near 30N51W and extends west to 25N69W to 31N77W. Showers are occurring along this front. Meanwhile, ahead of the front a trough extends from 29N50W to 24N64W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen along and north of this feature, from 27N-31N between 48W-51W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. A cold front extends from 31N52W to 27N60W to 26N70W to 31N77W will continue southward and become nearly stationary near 24N by early Mon, then dissipate by late Mon night. A high pressure ridge will build behind the front along roughly 28N Tue through Wed, then shift slightly northward late Wed through Thu night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres