000 AXNT20 KNHC 252341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 741 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. Please refer to the local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the east tropical Atlantic with analyzed along 21W from 13N-01N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly south of 06N and east of 24W. A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic, with axis along 49W and south of 14N. The wave is moving at about 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 08N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N24W to 01S45W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen along and south of the monsoon trough from 07N-04N and east of 20W. Scattered showers are also seen along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1021 mb high pressure centered near 31N88W. Fair weather prevails under this ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle east-southeast winds in the northern Gulf, with moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W. High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow over the northwest Gulf through Monday, then increase slightly to moderate to occasionally strong Monday night through early Wednesday as low pressure deepens over the central U.S. The flow then diminishes to gentle to moderate speeds on Thursday. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will occur each night over the southwestern Gulf as the nocturnal surface trough moves off the the Yucatan Peninsula at night and to across the southwestern Gulf in the mornings. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of the southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the early part of the upcoming week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered convection continues across the southern Central American countries with some of this activity entering the southern Carribbean. See the section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Thunderstorms are currently impacting the Greater Antilles, particularly eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Showers are also seen in Puerto Rico. Light showers are also in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin, with moderate to winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. Additionally, fresh winds are seen off the coast of Nicaragua. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through the early part of the upcoming week. A tropical wave east of the area will move across the Tropical N Atlantic Sunday through Monday night and into the eastern Caribbean Tuesday through Wednesday while it loses its identity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves, currently moving across the central Atlantic. A cold front is dropping across the central and western Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N59W and extends west to 33N77W. Showers are occurring along this front. Meanwhile, a 1015 mb low is analyzed near 27N62W and a trough extends from this low to 24N67W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen along and north of this feature, from 31N-26N between 50W-60W. A dying stationary front is also seen from 31N43W to 27N54W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The cold front will continue southward and become nearly stationary near 24N by early Monday, then dissipate by late Monday night. A high pressure ridge will build behind the front along roughly 28N Tuesday through Wednesday, then shift slightly northward late Wednesday through Thursday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR