000 AXNT20 KNHC 251738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. Please refer to the local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the east tropical Atlantic with axis along 18W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly south of 10N and east 0f 20W. A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic, with axis along 47W and south of 14N. The wave is moving at about 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 08N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 04N45W. Scattered showers prevail along this boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1021 mb high pressure centered near 29N86W. Fair weather prevails under this ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across most of the Gulf except the Straits of Florida, where locally fresh winds prevail. A surface trough is analyzed across the Bay of Campeche along 93W. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 95W. A few observations near the coast of Mexico are reporting hazy skies. High pressure over the SE U.S. will maintain moderate to fresh SE flow over the NW Gulf through Wed night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur each night over the SW Gulf as surface troughs move W from the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over most of the Gulf S of 26N and W of 94W for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is noted along the south central American coast from Honduras across Panama to northern Colombia in the southern Caribbean. The Pacific monsoon trough in combination with the a 1010 mb low in northern Colombia is aiding the convective activity in the region. See the section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Meanwhile, showers are occurring across the Greater Antilles with light showers approaching the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin, with moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. High pres north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through the first half of next week. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Tue and over the eastern Caribbean Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves, currently moving across the central Atlantic. The 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N77W. To the east, a cold front is approaching the northwest portion of the basin, currently along 31N between 60W-75W. A 1016 mb surface low is analyzed near 27N62W, with trough extending from the low to 23N68W. Scattered showers are noted with these features. A weakening stationary front extends from 31N43W to 26N56W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The cold front in the west Atlantic will move south of 30N and then stall along 24N by early Mon. The front will dissipate through late Mon. A ridge will build behind the front along roughly 28N through mid week. The tropical waves will continue moving west enhancing convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA