000 AXNT20 KNHC 251036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. The National Meteorological Institute of Costa Rica reported rainfall accumulations of half inch to 2 inches in the northern and Caribbean zone of Costa Rica. Additional accumulations of half inch to an inch is possible with localized higher amounts. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44-45W from 10N southward to the Equator, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers associated with the wave are noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave enters the Atlantic near 11N16W to 03N15W. Scattered moderate isolated convection is noted near the wave and the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W. Along 11N, tropical wave cuts between the ITCZ and the monsoon through. Then, ITCZ starts from 06N17W to 00N42W, and continues west of the tropical wave near the coast of Brazil 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough 08N-02N between 10W-16W. Farther west, scattered moderate convection is moving along the ITCZ 40 to 100 nm north and along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to extend across the basin from a 1019 mb high pressure located in the western Atlantic. Fair weather prevails under this ridge of high pressure across the basin. Scatterometer data suggests moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the southern portion of the basin while gentle wind is noted north of 25N. Fresh to strong northeasterly wind is present along the Florida Straits and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A trough is seen along the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N89W to the coast of Mexico near 18N91W. Smoke continues to be dense over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 95W with some observations near the coast of Mexico reporting hazy skies. High pressure over the SE U.S. will maintain moderate to fresh SE flow over the NW Gulf through Wed night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur each night over the SW Gulf as surface troughs move W from the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over most of the Gulf S of 26N and W of 94W for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along the south central American coast from Honduras across Panama to northern Colombia in the southern Caribbean. The Pacific monsoon trough in combination with the a 1008 mb low in northern Colombia is aiding the convective activity in the region. See the section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Meanwhile, showers are occurring across the Greater Antilles with light showers approaching the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin, with moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. High pres N of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through the first half of next week. Otherwise, a tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles by Tue evening and over the eastern Caribbean Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave, currently moving across the central Atlantic. The 1019 mb high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic is ridging across the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a stationary front enters the waters near 31N40W and extends to the southwest near 26N56W. From that point, the tail-end of the boundary is dissipating as ridge builds over the area. Some convection is possible along the tail- end of the boundary. A surface trough is analyzed from the western Atlantic to Hispaniola, near 28N64W to 19N72W. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen near this trough particularly from north of Hispaniola to the southern Bahamas. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. High pressure centered near 30N77W will gradually shift S to near 28N by early next week in response to a cold front that will drop south of 30N Sat. The front will continue moving S and become stationary near 25N by late on Sun before it dissipates. High pressure ridging will then build in behind the front along 29N early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres