000 AXNT20 KNHC 250604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... A Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture across Central America, which will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America over the next several days. Life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrain. According to the National Meteorological Institute of Costa Rica reported rainfall accumulations of half inch to 2 inches in the northern and Caribbean zone of Costa Rica. Additional accumulations of half inch to an inch is possible with localized higher amounts up to 2.0 inches in the next 12 hours in these zones. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43/44W from 10N southward to the Equator, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers associated with the wave are noted 180 nm east of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N33W to 01N43W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 01N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough 08N-04N between 10W-15W. Farther west, scattered moderate convection is moving along the ITCZ from 04N-02N between 22W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to extend across the basin from a 1020 mb high pressure located in the Mid-Atlantic. Fair weather prevails under this ridge of high pressure across the basin. Scatterometer data suggests moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the southern portion of the basin while gentle is noted north of 26N. Fresh to strong easterly wind is present along the Florida Straits and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A trough is along the Florida coast from 28N82W to 26N82W. Another trough is seen along the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N85W to the coast of Mexico near 16N93W. Smoke continues to be dense over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 95W with some observations near the coast of Mexico reporting hazy skies. High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will persist through early next week, maintaining moderate to fresh SE flow over the northwest Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur at night in the SW Gulf as well associated with a surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies generally over much of the far western and southwestern Gulf for the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along the south central American coast from Honduras across Panama to northern Colombia in the southern Caribbean. The Pacific monsoon trough is noted moving along the Panama coast to Colombia which is aiding the convective activity in the region. See the section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the Greater Antilles with light showers approaching the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin, with moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will continue to result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through at least early next week as a developing low off the coast of Nicaragua tracks northwestward. Otherwise, a tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles by Mon evening and across the eastern Caribbean Tue through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave, currently moving across the central Atlantic. The 1022 mb high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic is ridging across the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to push across the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N40W and extends to the southwest near 27N47W. From that point, the tail- end of the boundary stalls to 25N62W. Showers are seen moving along the front, with some embedded thunderstorms along the tail- end of the boundary. A surface trough is analyzed from the western Atlantic to Hispaniola, near 28N64W to 19N72W. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen near this trough particularly from north of Hispaniola to the southern Bahamas. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. A stationary front along 25N will dissipate by late tonight. High pressure ridging along 30N and west of 70W will gradually shift southward to near 28N by early next week in response to a cold front that will drop south of 30N Sat. The front will slowly move south and become stationary near 25N by late on Sun before it dissipates. High pressure ridging will then build along 29N early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres