000 AXNT20 KNHC 242355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... A Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture across Central America, which will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America over the next several days. This activity could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 10N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers associated with the wave are noted south of 06N between 40W-41W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 02N43W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 02N43W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the precipitation activity mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-01S between 22W-37W. Farther east, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is moving along south of the monsoon trough off the Ivory Coast, north of 03N and east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to extend across the basin from a 1022 mb high pressure located in central Alabama. Fair weather prevails under this ridge of high pressure. A trough is noted along the Florida coast from 29N83W to 27N82W. Another trough is seen in the Bay of Campeche from 20N91W to the coast of Mexico near 18N93W. Easterly winds are gentle to moderate in the eastern Gulf, with moderate southeasterly winds in the northwestern Gulf. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W with some observations near the coast of Mexico reporting hazy skies. High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will persist through early next week, maintaining moderate to fresh SE flow over the northwest Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur at night in the SW Gulf as well associated with a surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies generally within 90 nm of the eastern coast of Mexico the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along the south central American coast from southern Honduras to northern Colombia. The monsoon trough is noted moving along the Panama coast to Colombia which is aiding the convective activity. See the section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the Greater Antilles with light showers approaching the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin, with moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will continue to result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through at least early next week as a developing low off the coast of Nicaragua tracks northwestward. Otherwise, a tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles by Mon evening and across the eastern Caribbean Tuesday through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave, currently moving across the central Atlantic. The 1022 mb high pressure in central Alabama is ridging across the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to push across the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N43W and extends to the southwest near 26N55W. From that point, the tail- end of the boundary stalls to 26N64W. Showers are seen moving along the front, with some embedded thunderstorms along the tail- end of the boundary. A surface trough is analyzed from the western Atlantic to the Windward Passage and the northern Caribbean, near 26N66W to 17N76W. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen near this trough particularly from 26N-24N and near the southern Bahamas. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The stationary front will dissipate through early Saturday. High pressure ridging along 30N and west of 70W will gradually shift southward to near 28N by early next week in response to a cold front that will drop south of 30N Saturday. The front will slowly move south and become stationary near 25N by late on Sunday before it dissipates. High pressure ridging will then build along 29N early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR