000 AXNT20 KNHC 241720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... A Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture across Central America, which will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America over the next several days. This activity could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 14N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers associated with the wave are noted south of 06N between 39W-44W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 08N13W to 05N17W to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 03N36W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 03N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-09N between 08W-23W. Farther west, scattered showers are from 07N-10N between 52W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic into the SE U.S. and across most of the basin with fair weather. Latest ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate easterly winds prevailing across the Gulf waters. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W with some observations near the coast of Mexico reporting hazy skies. High pressure will continue to maintain return flow across the basin through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur at night in the SW Gulf through the weekend associated with a surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula. On Sunday, the pressure gradient over the region will diminish, thus resulting in mainly moderate to locally fresh winds continuing through the middle of the week. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies generally within 120 nm of the eastern coast of Mexico over the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Currently, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted over the south central Caribbean related to the Central American Gyre that is developing. This activity extends south of 15N between 75W-84W. See the section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Scattered showers are noted over the northern portion of the basin mainly north of 15N and east of 80W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades prevailing across the basin at this time. Ridging north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and adjacent eastern Pacific waters will continue to generate heavy showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean through the middle of the week. These showers will extend to the NW Caribbean waters on Tue as a developing low off the coast of Nicaragua tracks northwestward. Otherwise, a tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Monday evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave, currently moving across the central Atlantic. A 1021 mb surface high is near 31N78W. To the east, a frontal system enters the central Atlantic waters as a stationary front from 31N45W to 25N75W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. A surface trough is analyzed north of Hispaniola from 24N66W to 20N72W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The stationary front will dissipate through tonight. High pressure off northeast Florida will dissipate late today ahead of a cold front that will move south of 30N by Sat. The front will slowly move south and stall along 25N by late Sun then dissipate. A ridge will build along 29N in the wake of the front by early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA