000 AXNT20 KNHC 241034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall Over Central America: A Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture across Central America, which will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America for the next several days. These rains could cause life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 14N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms associated with the wave are from 00N-07N between 29W-43W. The wave is clearly depicted in CIMSS TPW and CIRA 850-700 mb LPW imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 08N13W to 05N17W to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 03N36W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 03N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-09N between 08W-23W. Farther west, scattered showers are from 07N-10N between 52W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends from the west Atlantic into the SE U.S. and across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Latest ASCAT pass shows gentle NE to E winds in the NE Gulf, with fresh to strong E winds across the southern Gulf, and fresh to strong E to SE winds in the west-central Gulf. Most of the Gulf is free of any shower activity except for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the W Bay of Campeche south of 20N west of 95W. Smoke continues in the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf with some observations near the coast of Mexico reporting hazy skies. The smoke is most dense south of 25N, west of 93W and within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico, where visibilities could be as low as 2 to 4 nautical miles at times. High pressure anchored NE of the area will maintain return flow across the basin through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur at night in the SW Gulf through early Sunday associated with a surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula. On Sunday, the pressure gradient over the region will diminish, thus resulting in mainly moderate to locally fresh winds continuing through the middle of the week. Otherwise, smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies generally within 120 nm of the eastern coast of Mexico the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Currently, numerous moderate with scattered strong convection is seen over the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica. See section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is present in the SW Caribbean from 10N-15N between 79W-83W. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the northern Caribbean between the Virginia Islands and Jamaica, partially enhanced by a surface trough extending from Haiti northeastward to 24N68W. Broken multi-layered clouds with isolated to scattered light showers cover the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh trades are over the far western Caribbean within 180 nm of Central America, with locally strong winds north of Honduras. Gentle trades cover most of the eastern and central Caribbean, except fresh near the coast of Colombia. The gradient of pressure between a ridge N of the area and lower pressure along Central America will support moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin. Broad low pressure across Central America and adjacent eastern Pacific waters will continue to generate heavy showers and tstorms over the SW Caribbean through the middle of next week. These showers will extend to the NW Caribbean waters on Tuesday as a developing low off the coast of Nicaragua tracks northwestward. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Monday evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high is near 31N77W. The high extends an E-W surface ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic, north of 27N west of 60W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 32N43W and extends westward to 26N55W to 26N63W, then continues as a stationary front to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along and within 60 nm south of the front east of 70W. A broad inverted surface trough is observed from 24N68W to SW Haiti near 18N74W. An upper level trough in the area is producing scattered showers and tstorms from 21N-23N between 65W-68W, with additional isolated tstorms just N of Puerto Rico. The remainder of the basin to the east of the cold front is experiencing surface ridging. The stationary front and surface trough in the W Atlantic will dissipate this evening. A new cold front will sink southward into the NE waters Saturday afternoon and stall along 23N Sunday evening before dissipating Monday evening. Seas to 10 ft associated with this front will affect the NE waters Sunday through Monday. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE winds will dominate the waters NE of the Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen