000 AXNT20 KNHC 232354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 754 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 12N southward, moving west around 10 knots. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ from 06N-01N between 36W-30W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N33W, then west of the tropical wave from 03N34W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate to strong convection is seen along and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 06N-02N, between 26W and the Ivory Coast. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure located in the Southeast U.S. near 32N85W is ridging across the basin. Light to gentle easterly winds are seen in the eastern Gulf with moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds are in the western Gulf. Smoke continues to be noted on visible satellite imagery in the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf with some observations in deep south Texas reporting hazy skies. High pressure extends from the west Atlantic into the NE Gulf and will maintain fresh to strong SE winds across the western Gulf through Friday. Winds will diminish and become more easterly across most of the basin this weekend as high pressure reorganizes across the west Atlantic and builds west along 32N into SE Louisiana. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough passes through northern Costa Rica near 10N83W to northern Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate convection continues across areas from southern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is also seen across the Greater Antilles, particularly from eastern Cuba to Puerto Rico. Showers are also seen moving across the Lesser Antilles. The ASCAT pass from earlier today showed light to gentle trades in the eastern Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades in the west-central Caribbean off the Nicaraguan coast. Moderate to fresh trades are also seen in the northern portion of the basin. High pressure across the NW Atlantic will maintain fresh trade winds across most of the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific will persist through this weekend to produce active weather across the SW Caribbean. A tropical wave will move into the tropical Atlantic waters by late Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N50W and extends westward to 27N66W to the northern Bahamas near 26N77W. The tail-end of the boundary off the Florida coast is dying, beginning from 26N77W to 30N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 50 nm of the front east of 62W. A surface trough is also observed from 26N66W to northern Dominican Republic near 20N71W. An upper level low is centered near 23N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near this feature from 26N-20N between 65W-70W. Otherwise, the remainder of the basin is seeing surface ridging from a 1027 mb high pressure located near 39N20W. The cold front will continue to sink southward through Friday, then stall and slowly dissipate along 25N from Friday night through Sunday. Ther broad inverted trough will persist north of Hispaniola through Friday. A second cold front will sink southward into the northern waters on Saturday morning and gradually merge with remnants of old cold front along 24N to 25N Sunday night through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR