000 AXNT20 KNHC 230547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the eastern Atlantic along 31W from 11N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. TPW imagery nicely indicates the presence of the wave. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ from 02N-06N between 22W-40W, with isolated strong convection in this area between 22W-29W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 05N20W. The ITCZ is from 05N20W to 04N28W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 03N32W to 02N44W to 00N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection prevails from 01N-06N between 05W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin with fair weather, with a 1018 mb high near 29N85W. Recent scatterometer data shows strong SE winds covering the western Gulf and the south-central Gulf. Winds are lighter in the NE Gulf. A surface trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche accompanied by an isolated shower or two. High pressure across the W Atlantic extending SW to the eastern Gulf will maintain fresh to strong SE winds across the western Gulf through Fri. High pressure will become more E to W aligned along about 30N over the weekend to produce moderate to fresh E to SE wind flow across most of Gulf. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough passes through northern Costa Rica to Panama into northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails over southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador and western Nicaragua, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from Honduras through Costa Rica and the western Caribbean Sea from 11N-17N, west of 77W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is also over northern Colombia and extreme western Venezuela, mainly south of 10.5N. Cloudiness along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms covers portions of the northern Caribbean from Hispaniola to the south coast of Cuba. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong E winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Heavy rain is expected to continue across southern Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica through Friday, enhanced by an area of low pressure near the west coast of Nicaragua, mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the eastern North Pacific. These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. In addition, active weather is likely to continue across the SW Caribbean through the weekend. High pressure across the W Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong tradewinds across most of the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night before winds diminish modestly through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A southward moving cold front enters the discussion area near 32N59W and extends W to 28N73W to 31N79W. A surface trough is from 28N65W to 21N74W. An upper-level low is near 26N68W. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 21N-26N between 62W-71W. The remainder of the basin is covered by a high pressure ridge, anchored by 1020 and 1022 mb highs near 26N49W and 31N23W, respectively. The cold front will continue sinking south across the northern waters through Friday before stalling E to W along 25N late Fri then gradually dissipating. High pressure N of the front will sink S to along 30N by Fri night and persist through the weekend. A broad inverted trough will persist N of Hispaniola through Fri. NE winds near 30 kt will continue through Friday in the far E Atlantic near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen