000 AXNT20 KNHC 221045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 27W from 15N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within 180 nm east of the wave axis, mainly from 02N-05N. The CIMSS 700-850 mb Layered Precipitable Water product clearly depicts the tropical wave. The wave is analyzed about 3 degrees east of the model diagnosed location of the 700 mb trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and extends to 11N19W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 05N24W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 03N30W to 05N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 16W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south and 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb surface high centered in the western Atlantic extends a ridge westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fair weather prevails except for isolated showers and thunderstorms seen west of Port Charlotte Florida from 25N-27N between 82.5W-83.5W. Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the eastern Gulf. There is still a fairly strong pressure gradient in the western Gulf of Mexico between the high in the W Atlantic and low pressure over northern Mexico and the Central Plains. This is causing fresh SE winds for much of the western Gulf, with locally strong winds over portions of the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. The low pressure over the Central Plains will weaken during the next couple of days and allow winds over most of the western Gulf to gradually diminish through Friday. However, surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan will generate strong winds over the Bay of Campeche each night through Sunday night. Smoke from fires across Mexico continues to be noted in satellite data and observations over the western Gulf. Although the smoke is not as dense as previous days, it is still noticeable in portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, close to the Mexican coast. The smoke will continue to produce hazy skies in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level divergence is present in the southwest Caribbean, according to the CIMSS analysis. This is enhancing scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 09N-14N west of 80W. The remainder of the central Caribbean is covered by a broad area of cloudiness with isolated to scattered showers from 73W-80W, and this extends over the northern Caribbean to Hispaniola. The ASCAT pass from Tuesday evening shows fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and fresh winds north of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere. High pressure across the W Atlantic will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trades across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night. A tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical Atlantic waters by early Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 surface high near 31N75W is supporting fair to partly cloudy weather across the far west Atlantic west of 73W. Just N of this high, an E-W cold front is pushing southward and is down to 32N. The cold front will sink south across the northern waters through Thursday. Moderate winds will prevail elsewhere across the region through Sat. Currently, the remnants of Andrea have moved north of the forecast area near 32N67W and continue to weaken. An upper-level low is near 28N69W. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N68W to 21N72W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted from 23N-29N between 63W-68W. Isolated showers and tstorms are elsewhere from 22N-31N between 62W-71W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya, strong to near gale NE winds will continue into Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen