000 AXNT20 KNHC 211804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Tue May 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Subtropical Depression Andrea... As of 1500 UTC, Subtropical Depression Andrea is centered near 30.8N69.2W, or about 243 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with higher gust. Scattered moderate convection extends outward to 350 nm in the SE quadrant. Satellite imagery indicates Andrea is very poorly organized and is interacting with an upper low that is very near the cyclone. Andrea is forecast to turn towards the northeast and east tonight, then continued to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low by this evening. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 21W from 10N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly from 02N-07N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 06N19W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 04N23W and extends to 03N39W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is near and within 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-37W and near the coast of Brazil between 46W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high centered in the western Atlantic extends westward into the eastern portion of basin, where gentle winds prevail. Tighter pressure gradient between the 1017 mb high and the 998 mb low centered in northern Mexico are keeping fresh to strong south to southeast flow across the western Gulf. Gale force winds have diminished but coastal advisories continue for most of the Texas and Louisiana coastline. Refer to the local National Weather Service office for further details. Smoke from fires across Mexico continues to be noted in satellite data and observations over the western Gulf. Although the smoke is not as dense as previous days, it is still noticeable with hazy conditions mainly west of 93W and south of 27N. Deepening low pres across the Central Plains continues to drive strong SE to S winds and high seas across the NW Gulf today, but will gradually diminish this afternoon through tonight. Otherwise, high pres across the W Atlc will maintain fresh to strong return flow across the W half of the Gulf through Sat. Smoke from fires across southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies and reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level diffluence is maintaining broad area of cloudiness with scattered moderate convection across the southwest Caribbean south of 15N between 75W-83W. Isolated showers are also noted to the north over the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Moderate trades cover much of the basin with moderate to fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean. Strong winds are seen in recent ASCAT data near the coasts of NW Venezuela. High pres across the W Atlc will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trades across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night, before weakening modestly into the weekend. A tropical wave will reach the Tropical Atlc waters early Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to section above for details on Subtopical Depression Andrea. Surface ridging is producing mostly fair weather in between Andrea and Florida. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are located between N coast of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and the convection associated with Andrea. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high near 32N51W and a 1024 mb high near 32N21W. A cold front is analyzed between these two highs from 31N36W to 25N45W. Isolated showers are possible along the front. North to northeast near gale conditions are forecast to persist off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through Wednesday. Subtropical Depression Andrea near 30.8N69.2W 1009 mb at 1500 UTC moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Andrea will move E-NE today, then is expected to weaken tonight through Wed as it begins to interact with a cold front sinking S into the region. The cold front will sink S across the northern waters Wed and Wed night and stall E to W along 24N-25N Fri. Elsewhere moderate winds will generally prevail across the region through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres