000 AXNT20 KNHC 210521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Sub-tropical Storm Andrea... Sub-tropical Storm Andrea is centered near 29.5N 68.7W, or about 260 nm SW of Bermuda at 21/0300 UTC, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is mainly confined to the eastern semicircle within 180 nm of the center NE quad and 270 nm SE quad. A recent partial ASCAT pass shows winds of 35 kt in the NE quadrant. Andrea is forecast to slow down as it turns to the northeast today and east tonight. Little change in strength is expected today, with dissipation by Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... SE winds of 25-30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force are currently occurring in the northwest Gulf of Mexico north of 26N and west of 93W and will last through this morning due to the presence of a strong low pressure system in the Southern Plains. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... North to northeast gale-force winds are forecast to continue pulsing off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through today. Near-gale conditions are then expected to continue in Agadir into Wednesday. For more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 19W from 10N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted out to 90 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly south of 05N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 03N23W to 02N45W to 00N50W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 23W-31W and west of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the northwest Gulf. A surface ridge is over northern Florida and the NE Gulf, where gentle winds prevail. ASCAT shows strong E winds off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Meanwhile, fresh to near-gale SE winds are over the western half of the basin. Smoke continues to be noted in satellite data and observations over the western Gulf, mainly west of 93W and south of 27N. Strong SE to S winds and building seas are expected today across the western Gulf between high pressure over the southeast U.S. and lower pressure over the Central Plains. Fresh to strong easterly winds near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula are possible each night as a trough moves W from land. Smoke and haze from fires across southern Mexico could reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection continues across the southwest Caribbean south of 16N and west of 79W. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Moderate trades cover much of the basin with fresh winds in the south- central Caribbean. Strong winds are seen in ASCAT data near the coasts of NW Venezuela, NE Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night, then will diminish by Sat. A tropical wave may approach the waters east of the Windward Islands by late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to section above for details on Sub-tropical Storm Andrea. Scattered showers and tstorms prevail between the N coast of Hispaniola and the convection associated with Andrea. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high near 34N55W and a 1022 mb high near 33N22W. A cold front is analyzed between these two highs from 32N38W to 27N50W. Isolated showers are possible along the front. Aside from the area where Andrea is located, moderate winds will generally prevail across the region through mid-week, then increase slightly to moderate to fresh as high pressure builds in the wake of Andrea. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen