000 AXNT20 KNHC 202338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 738 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Sub-tropical Storm Andrea... Sub-tropical Storm Andrea has developed in the west Atlantic, centered near 29.0N 68.7W at 20/2100 UTC, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... SE winds ranging between 20-30 kt with frequent gusts up to gale force are expected in the northeast Gulf of Mexico north of 26N and west of 96W tonight. These conditions are expected through early Tuesday as a strong low pressure system forms in the southern plains. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... Northeast gale-force winds are off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir, while near-gale winds will spread to the marine zone in the Canarias. Near-gale conditions are expected to continue in Agadir through Tuesday. For more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/meter. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 18W from 10N southward. Scattered showers are noted out 80 to 100 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly south of 05N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 05N19W to 01N46W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 20W-28W and west of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the northwest Gulf. A 1018 mb surface high is centered over northern Florida and prevailing across the while basin. Light to gentle winds are noted over eastern Gulf, while moderate to fresh southeast winds prevail over the western half of the basin. Smoke continues to be noted in satellite data and observations over the western Gulf west of 91W and south of 23N. Fresh southeast winds and building seas will continue through tonight across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds near the west coast of Yucatan Peninsula are possible each night as a thermal trough moves west across the Bay of Campeche each night. Smoke and haze from fires across southern Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection continues across the southwestern portion of the basin south of 16N and west of 78W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the southern Caribbean, with the strongest winds off the Venezuelan coast. Light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night, then decreasing by Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the recently upgraded Sub-tropical Storm Andrea. Scattered moderate convection prevails near Andrea mainly north of 22N between 64W-72W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 28N48W and a 1022 mb high near 33N23W. A surface trough is analyzed between these two highs from 29N38W to 25N40W. No significant convection is related to this trough at this time. Aside from the west Atlantic where Andrea is located, moderate winds will generally prevail across the region through Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA