000 AXNT20 KNHC 201802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... N to NE gale winds are off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. Near gales will spread to the marine zone in the Canarias. Near gale conditions are expected to persist in Agadir today into Tuesday as northeast winds continues. For more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/meter. A trough of low pressure centered near 26N68W about midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight and this morning. A low pressure system is expected to form within this area of disturbed weather later today, and this system could become a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone by tonight or Tuesday while it moves northward or northeastward. By Wednesday, however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development, and the system should be absorbed by a cold front. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. Gale southeast winds are expected in portion of the southwest Gulf especially within 60 nm of the coast between Corpus Christi, Texas and Matagorda, Texas. SE winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent gusts up to gale force are possible. Seas could reach up to 9 feet. Conditions are expected through early Tuesday as a strong low pressure system form in the southern plains. ...TROPICAL WAVEs... A tropical wave is along 16W/17W from 10N southward. Scattered showers are noted extending out 80 to 100 nm on either side of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. A tropical wave is located between the monsoon trough and the ITCZ near 10N-02N between 16W/17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ east of 25W. Additional scattered moderate convection is also seen near the coast of Brazil and the ITCZ from 01N to 02S between 49W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is analyzed in northeast Florida near 30N81W and is ridging across most of the basin. Fair weather conditions persist across the Gulf with no significant convection in the basin. A surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula is seen near 22N88W to 18N93W. A 1007 mb low is noted near the Mexican coast near 20N96W. Winds continue to be light to gentle and out of the east in the eastern Gulf. However, in the western portion of the basin, winds are fresh to strong out of the southeast. Near gale conditions are forecast for today along portion of the western Gulf. Smoke continues to be noted over the western Gulf west of 91W and south of 23N. Strong SE to S winds and building seas are expected across the western Gulf today and tonight. Fresh to strong easterly winds near the west coast of Yucatan Peninsula are possible each night as a trough moves W from land. Smoke and haze from fires across southern Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection continues across the southwestern portion of the basin off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. The convection impacting the Windward Passage has tapered off. Showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles and eastern portion of the Greater Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the southern Caribbean with the strongest winds off the Venezuelan coast. For the rest of the basin, trades are generally light to gentle. Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night, then winds in these areas will decrease Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the Tropical North Atlantic through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low is observed near 26N68W with a trough extending along the low from 29N67W to 22N69W. Scattered moderate convection is near and to the east and northeast of the low, from 31N-25N between 64W-70W. Another cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is observed west of the low from 28N-22N near the southeast Bahamas. Please refer to the Special Features section above for additional information associated to the surface trough. Meanwhile, what was once a dying stationary front in the central Atlantic is a weak surface trough analyzed from 30N47W to 27N53W. A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed near 27N48W and a 1023 mb high near 33N25W. A surface trough is between these two high pressures analyzed near 28N38W to 22N40W. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the trough axis. Low pressure currently centered near 26.5N68.5W could develop into a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone by tonight or Tuesday as it moves N to NE. Otherwise, Moderate winds will generally prevail across the region through Fri night. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at http://www.hurricanes.gov. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres