000 AXNT20 KNHC 201044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... N to NE Gale winds are off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. Near gales will spread to the marine zone Canarias. Near gale conditions are expected to persist in Agadir on Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/meter. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and south of the monsoon trough east of 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high is analyzed in the northeast Gulf near 28N85W and is ridging across most of the basin. Isolated showers are seen across the eastern Gulf off the southwest Florida coast. Otherwise, conditions are benign. A surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula is seen near 22N89W to 19N94W. Winds continue to be light to gentle and out of the east in the eastern Gulf. In the western portion of the basin, winds are moderate to fresh out of the southeast. Smoke continues to be noted over the western Gulf west of 91W and south of 23N. Strong SE to S winds and building seas are expected across the western Gulf tonight through Tuesday night. Fresh to strong easterly winds near the west coast of Yucatan Peninsula are possible at night due to local effects. Smoke and haze from fires across southern Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection continues across the southwestern portion of the basin off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. The convection impacting the Windward Passage has tapered off. Showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles and eastern portion of the Greater Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the southern Caribbean with the strongest winds off the Venezuelan coast. For the rest of the basin, trades are generally light to gentle. Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the Tropical North Atlantic the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 mb low is observed near 26N68W with a trough extending along the low from 28N66W to 20N71W. Scattered moderate convection is near and to the west of the low, from 29N-25N between 65W- 75W. Another surface low is seen between the Bahamas and South Florida, along 79W from 26N-24N. Isolated showers are seen near this trough and in the Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, what was once a dying stationary front in the central Atlantic is now a surface trough analyzed from 31N50W to 28N55W. A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed near 28N48W and a 1023 mb high near 34N25W. A surface trough is between these two high pressures analyzed near 28N39W to 21N41W. The low pressure system associated with a broad, disorganized area of disturbed weather SW of Bermuda may possibly develop into a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone by tonight or Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. Moderate winds are expected across most of the rest of the region the next few days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at http://www.hurricanes.gov. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR