000 AXNT20 KNHC 200550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... N to NE Gale winds are off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. Near gales will spread to the marine zone Canarias. Near gale conditions are expected to persist in Agadir on Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/meter. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and south of the monsoon trough east of 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... The squall line that was seen moving across the north-central Gulf off the Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coast has now dissipated. Otherwise, surface ridging is seen across the basin. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms continue off the southwest coast of Florida. In the eastern Gulf, light to gentle easterly winds are seen. Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds are seen in the western Gulf. Smoke continues to be noted over the western Gulf west of 91W and south of 23N. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the northern Gulf and lower pressures in NE Mexico will support strong SE to S winds and building seas over the western Gulf Monday night through Thursday night. Expect also fresh to strong easterly winds near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into early mornings hours due to local effects. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection is currently observed just off the coast of Haiti in the Windward Passage. Convection also continues across the southwest Gulf moving off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Showers are seen moving across the Lesser Antilles in addition to the eastern half of the Greater Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the southern Caribbean with the strongest winds off the Venezuelan coast. For the rest of the basin, trades are generally light to gentle. Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the Tropical N Atlantic the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dying stationary front enters the waters near 31N50W and extends westward to near 28N63W. A surface trough continues from 28N63W to the southeastern Bahamas near 21N73W. Scattered moderate convection is seen adjacent to the trough from 31N-24N between 62W-70W. In the western Bahamas, another trough is analyzed near 25N79W to 23N79W. Isolated convection is seen near this trough moving from the Bahamas to south Florida and into the Straits of Florida. A 1022 mb high pressure is analyzed near 28N47W and a 1025 mb high near 33N28W. A surface trough is between these two high pressures analyzed near 30N38W to 28N40W. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday, however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a cold front. Otherwise, moderate winds are generally expected across most of the region the next few days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at http://hurricanes.gov. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR