000 AXNT20 KNHC 191756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... Winds are increasing to near gale off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. Expect N to NE winds to gale force in Agadir today. Near gales will spread to the marine zone Canarias. Near gale conditions are expected to persist in Agadir on Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/meter. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Sierra Leone in Africa near 07N12W and extends to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate and convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 11W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the the ITCZ from 02S to 02N west of 45W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure roughly extends along 30N across the Gulf. A medium-strength pressure gradient between the ridge and a 1003 mb low over central Mexico are producing SE moderate to fresh conditions, as observed by a scatterometer pass and several ships and oil platforms. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from a squall line extending from Mississippi to Louisiana. Radar imagery show most of the activity gradually moving southeast into the northern Gulf waters of Louisiana. No substantial deep convection is observed for most of the Gulf of Mexico, though some showers are occurring over Florida Bay. The gradient between a ridge across the northern Gulf and lower pressures in northern Texas will support strong SE to S winds and building seas over the western Gulf Mon night through Thu night. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility west of about 91W, with recently observed visibilities as low as 3 to 5 miles primarily over coastal locations in Mexico to southern Texas and in the Bay of Campeche. This reduced visibility may continue during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A medium-strength pressure gradient due to 1022 mb Bermuda High near 31N67W and a 1010 mb low pressure over NE South America is producing generally moderate tradewinds across the Caribbean Sea. The exceptions are the strong E to SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras and the strong E winds north of Colombia. Scattered to moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of Colombia from 12N to 09N associated to the Pacific monsoon trough which extends from the 1010 mb low pressure near the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are present near Panama and Nicaragua. Scattered shower activity is also present between Haiti and Puerto Rico. Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Expect thunderstorms and rainfall to increase during the next few days for the SW Caribbean south of 14N west of 75W, and over portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the Tropical N Atlc the next few days. Smoke and haze from fires in the Yucatan of Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras may reduce visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary cold front extends from 31N49W to 28N60W with the tail end of the front weakening to near 27N63W. Scattered showers are present within 100 nm east of the front north of 28N. A surface trough is located east of the Bahamas from 26N64W to 21N71W, forced in part by divergence from an upper- level low north of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is present over the Bahamas. The stationary front bisects an elongated E-W ridge extending from the NE Florida coast to a 1021 mb Bermuda High near 31N67W to a 1026 mb Azores High near 33N28W. A weak trough is also present from 27N76W to 23N78W. Scattered activity is near the vicinity of the trough. Due to a weak to medium-strength N-S pressure gradient, the tradewinds are generally be fresh to moderate. A large pressure gradient between the Azores High and low pressure over the Saharan Desert is causing strong winds off of NW Africa. See Special Features section above for more details. The aforementioned stationary front in the W Atlantic will weaken and dissipate later today. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the region as high pressure remains in place through early next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a short-lived tropical or subtropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT today. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at http://hurricanes.gov. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres