000 AXNT20 KNHC 191007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 607 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far East Atlantic Gale Warning: Winds are likely nearing gale NE conditions off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. Expect N to NE winds to increase to gale force in Agadir around 1200 UTC today. Near gales will spread to the marine zone Canarias. Near gales to gales are expected to persist in Agadir on Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/meter. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exists the coast of West Africa near new and extends to new. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near sew. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located from 00N to 07N between 04W and 22W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 02S to 02N west of 43W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure roughly extends along 30N across the Gulf. A medium-strength pressure gradient between the ridge and a 1004 mb low over central Mexico are producing SE moderate breeze conditions, as observed by a scatterometer pass and several ships and oil platforms. No substantial deep convection is observed over the Gulf of Mexico this evening, though some showers are occurring over Florida Bay. The gradient between a ridge across the northern Gulf and lower pressures in northern Texas will support strong SE to S winds and building seas over the western Gulf Mon night and Tue. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility west of about 91W, with recently observed visibilities as low as 3 to 5 miles primarily over coastal locations in Mexico. This reduced visibility may continue during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A medium-strength pressure gradient due to 1021 mb Bermuda High near 31N67W and low pressure over NE South America is producing generally light to moderate tradewinds across the Caribbean Sea this evening. The exceptions are the strong E to SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras and the strong NE to E winds north of Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is present between Jamaica and Cuba and between Haiti and Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring over the SW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Expect thunderstorms and rainfall to increase during the next few days for the SW Caribbean south of 14N west of 75W, and over portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Smoke and haze from fires in the Yucatan of Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras may reduce visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary cold front extends from 32N50W to 24N65W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 180 nm east of the front north of 27N and scattered showers are present within 120 nm of the front south of 27N. A surface trough is located east of the Bahamas from 21N70W to 25N69W, forced in part by divergence from an upper-level low north of the Bahamas. Isolated moderate convection is present over the Bahamas. The stationary front bisects an elongated E-W ridge extending from the NE Florida coast to a 1021 mb Bermuda High near 31N67W to a 1025 mb Azores High near 35N29W. Due to a weak to medium-strength N-S pressure gradient, the tradewinds are generally fresh to moderate. A large pressure gradient between the Azores High and low pressure over the Saharan Desert is causing strong winds off of NW Africa. See Special Features section above for more details. The aforementioned stationary front in the W Atlantic will weaken and dissipate later today. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the region as high pressure remains in place through early next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form from the surface trough well to the east of the Bahamas and several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or northeastward. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at http://hurricanes.gov. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea