000 AXNT20 KNHC 190551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far East Atlantic Gale Warning: Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data showed near gale NE winds off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. Expect N to NE winds to increase to gale force in Agadir around 1200 UTC on Sunday. Near gales will spread to the marine zones Tarfaya and Canarias. Near gales to gales are expected to persist in Agadir on Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exists the coast of West Africa near 11N15W and extends to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is located from 01N to 06N between 06W and 20W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 01S to 02N west of 42W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb surface high is centered in the NE Gulf of Mexico along a ridge of high pressure that roughly extends along 30N across the Gulf. A moderate pressure gradient between the high and a 999 mb low over central Mexico are producing SE moderate breeze conditions, as observed by a scatterometer pass and several ships and oil platforms. No substantial deep convection is observed over the Gulf of Mexico this evening, though some showers are occurring over Florida Bay and the west tip of Cuba. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and lower pressures over NE Mexico will continue to support fresh to strong SE to S winds across the western Gulf Mon night through Wed night, with building seas of up to 8 or 9 ft. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility west of about 91W, with recently observed visibilities as low as 3 to 5 miles primarily over coastal locations in Mexico. This reduced visibility may continue during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient due to 1021 mb Bermuda High near 31N65W and a 1009 mb Colombian low is producing generally light to moderate tradewinds across the Caribbean Sea this evening. The exceptions are the strong E to SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras and the strong NE to E winds north of Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is present between Jamaica and Cuba as well as over the SW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south-central Caribbean tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Wed night. Expect thunderstorms and rainfall to increase during the next few days for the SW Caribbean south of 14N west of 75W, and over portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Smoke and haze from fires in the Yucatan of Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras may reduce visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary cold front extends from 32N51W to 24N68W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 180 nm east of the front north of 26N and scattered showers are present within 120 nm of the front south of 26N. Isolated moderate convection also is present over the Bahamas in association with an upper-level low to the north of the Bahamas. The stationary front bisects an elongated E-W ridge extending from the NE Florida coast to a 1021 mb Bermuda High near 31N65W to a 1028 mb Azores High near 35N29W. Due to a weak to moderate N-S pressure gradient, the tradewinds are generally fresh to moderate. Farther east, an upper-low along the coast of Western Sahara is helping to promote some isolated moderate convection near Western Sahara and the Canary Islands. A large pressure gradient between the Azores High and low pressure over the Saharan Desert is causing strong winds off of NW Africa. See Special Features section above for more details. The aforementioned stationary front in the W Atlantic will weaken and dissipate by later this morning. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the region as high pressure remains in place through Mon. An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east of the Bahamas and several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or northeastward. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at http://hurricanes.gov. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea