000 AXNT20 KNHC 190000 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far East Atlantic Gale Warning: ASCAT continues to observe near gale NE winds off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. Expect N to NE winds to increase to gale force in Agadir after 1200 UTC on Sunday. Near gales will spread to the marine zones Tarfaya and Canarias. Near gales to gales are expected to persist in Agadir on Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 06N18W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N36W to 01S44W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N-08N between 05W-19W, and from 08N-11N east of 15W. Scattered showers are noted within 210 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-33W, and within 180 nm of the coast of Brazil from 03S-04N. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, with a 1017 mb high centered along the Florida/Georgia border. Upper-level troughing is over the southern half of Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE winds are over the western half of the Gulf with moderate anticyclonic flow in the E Gulf. The Gulf is mostly free of significant showers or thunderstorms, but isolated thunderstorms are noted along the north coast of Cuba, the SW coast of Florida, and the Florida Big Bend area. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility west of 91W, with recently observed visibilities as low as 3 to 5 miles, and this will continue during the next several days. A line of severe thunderstorms is mostly located at least 90 nm inland to the north of Houston Texas, extending NE. The southern end of this line may move near the south coast of Louisiana Sunday morning, in a much weaker state, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. SE winds will strengthen to strong breeze across the western Gulf Mon night through Wed night ahead of an intense low pressure system that will move through the southern Great Plains of the U.S. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level ridging over the Caribbean Sea is leading to slightly drier conditions over the western Caribbean compared to the last few days, with most of the basin not seeing significant precipitation. However, scattered thunderstorms are occurring over Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, northern Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean north of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the far SW Caribbean south of 11.5N between NW Colombia and southern Costa Rica due to influences from the East Pacific monsoon trough. Expect thunderstorms and rainfall to increase during the next few days for the SW Caribbean south of 14N west of 75W, and over portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Smoke and haze from fires in Central America could reduce visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N51W to 27N57W, then continues as a stationary front to 24N73W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm of the stationary front. Scattered showers are near and within 120 nm ahead of the cold front. A weak mid-upper level low near the NW Bahamas and southern Florida is producing isolated showers and storms in the area. Scattered thunderstorms are over Cuba, the Florida Straits, the Old Bahamas Channel and the waters between Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas. A 1021 mb high is near 31N66W. Farther E, a 1025 mb high near 36N31W extends a ridge over much of the east-central Atlantic. An upper- level low near 24N17W and surface trough just off the coast of Western Sahara is producing scattered thunderstorms north of the upper-low and south of the Canary Islands. See section above for information on the gale warning off the coast of Morocco. The aforementioned stationary front in the W Atlantic will weaken and dissipate tonight. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the region as high pressure remains in place near 30N through Mon. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or northeastward. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at http://hurricanes.gov. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen