101 AXNT20 KNHC 181816 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 216 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N16W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails south of the monsoon from 06W-20W, while scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 27W-30W and west of 41W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered over southern Georgia. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevails across the whole area, with seas generally under 5 ft. A relatively dry airmass is noted across most of the region. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility across the western Gulf west of 90W and north to the Texas coast. Two troughs are noted in the basin, one surface trough extends from the FL Panhandle near 30N83W to 27N84W, second trough is in the Bay of Campeche near 22N91W to 18N92W. Both troughs are not producing any significant convection in the vicinity. The surface ridge will move east toward Bermuda through the weekend. SE winds will strengthen to strong breeze across the western Gulf Mon night through Wed night ahead of an intense low pressure system moving through the southern great plains of the U.S. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Westerly flow aloft is transporting mid to upper level moisture from Central America through Cuba, Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted spread across the northwest Caribbean waters mainly north of 15N and west of 80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present in the southern Caribbean north of Panama and Costa Rica. Abundant moisture in the region continues to enhance convective acitivity and persist over the area near Panama and Costa Rica. Subsidence and relatively dry weather covers the remainder of the basin. The Saharan Air Layer product from CIMSS shows that this is partially due to some African dust that has reached this area. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Smoke and haze from fires in Central America will reduce visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 28N77W to 29N79W near the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted within 260 nm east of the trough. A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N52W to 25N59W, then continues as a stationary front to the central Bahamas near 23N73W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either side of the fronts. East of the front, surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 36N33W. An upper-level low that has persisted for the last few days has a surface reflection, analyzed as a 1013 mb surface low near 24N18W. Strong NE winds are noted per scatterometer data northeast of this low between the Canary and the Madeira Islands. Expect near gale northeast winds to pulse off the coast of Morocco now through the weekend in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya, and also spreading to Canarias on Sunday, according to the latest forecast from Meteo France. The fronts will weaken and dissipate by tonight as high pressure builds across the northern waters. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the region as a surface ridge remains in place near 30N through Mon. A large and elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms has developed well to the east of the Bahamas. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or northeastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres