000 AXNT20 KNHC 181031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 AM EDT Sat May 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 15N17W to 07N20W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W, while scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 23W-33W and west of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered over the Florida Panhandle. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the whole area, with seas generally under 5 ft. A relatively dry airmass is noted across most of the region. The surface ridge will move east toward Bermuda through the weekend. Southeast winds will strengthen across the western Gulf Mon night and Tue ahead of an intense low pressure system moving through the southern great plains of the U.S. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Westerly flow aloft is transporting mid to upper level moisture from Central America through Cuba, Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted over the northwest Caribbean waters mainly north of 15N and west of 75W. Moisture is forecast to persist across Cuba, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters this weekend enhancing the likelihood of some convective activity, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Subsidence and relatively dry weather cover the remainder of the basin. The Saharan Air Layer product from CIMSS shows that this is partially due to some African dust that has reached this area. Fresh winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean, while moderate winds will continue over the eastern Caribbean and gentle winds over the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the Gulf of Honduras Sat through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N77W to 24N78W. Scattered showers are noted within 230 nm east of the trough. A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N53W to 25N60W, then continues as a stationary front to the central Bahamas near 24N74W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either side of the fronts. East of the front, surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 35N36W. An upper-level low that has persisted for the last few days near 29N21W has a surface reflection, analyzed as a 1012 mb surface low near 25N21W. Strong NE winds are noted per scatterometer data northeast of this low between the Canary and the Madeira Islands. Expect near gale northeast winds to pulse off the coast of Morocco now through the weekend in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya, and also spreading to Canarias on Sunday, according to the latest forecast from Meteo France. The fronts will weaken and dissipate by tonight as high pressure builds across the northern waters. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the region as a surface ridge remains in place near 30N through Mon. An area of low pressure is then expected to form several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week, while it moves northward or northeastward. See latest NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details. The next outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA