000 AXNT20 KNHC 180528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 AM EDT Sat May 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 06N19W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the NE coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails over is from 01N-06N between 06W-14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 28N84W. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the whole area, with seas generally under 5 ft. A relatively dry airmass is noted across most of the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Yucatan Peninsula, and this activity could reach portions of the Bay of Campeche overnight. The surface ridge will move east toward Bermuda through the weekend. Expect strengthening southeast return flow across the western Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building seas to 8 or 9 ft over the northwest Gulf by Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will then continue through mid-week. Light smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may reduce visibilities over the southwest Gulf during the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Westerly flow aloft is transporting mid to upper level moisture from Central America through Cuba, Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted over the northwest Caribbean waters mainly west of 80W. Moisture is forecast to persist across eastern and central Cuba as well as Hispaniola this weekend enhancing the likelihood of some convective activity, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Subsidence and relatively dry weather cover the remainder of the basin. The Saharan Air Layer product from CIMSS shows that this is partially due to some African dust that has reached this area. Fresh winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean, while moderate winds will continue over the eastern Caribbean and gentle winds over the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the Gulf of Honduras Sat through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N55W to 24N65W, then continues as a stationary front to the central Bahamas near 25N74W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either side of the fronts. East of the front, surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 35N36W. An upper-level low that has persisted for the last few days in near 26N21W has a surface reflection, analyzed as a 1012 mb surface low near 25N21W. Strong NE winds are noted per scatterometer data northeast of this low between the Canary and the Madeira Islands. Expect near gale northeast winds to pulse off the coast of Morocco now through the weekend in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya, and also spreading to Canarias on Sunday, according to the latest forecast from Meteo France. The fronts will weaken and dissipate by Sat night as high pressure builds across the northern waters. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the region as a surface ridge remains in place near 30N through Mon. An area of low pressure is then expected to form several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week, while it moves northward or northeastward. See latest NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details. The next outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA