000 AXNT20 KNHC 172347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 06N19W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 00N45W to the NE coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 06W-14W. Scattered showers are noted from 01N-07N between 22W-33W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm of the coast of Brazil from 02S-04N. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extending from the western Atlantic across Florida dominates the Gulf waters. A gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow prevails with seas generally under 5 ft. A relatively dry airmass is noted across most of the region. The exception is isolated showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf south of 27N between 86W-90W and another small area from 26N-28N between 85W- 86W. This convective activity is being driven by an upper-level trough over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over the NE Yucatan Peninsula, the Yucatan Channel, western Cuba, and the SW tip of Florida near Cape Sable. The surface high pressure ridge over the NE Gulf and Florida will move east toward Bermuda through Sun. Expect strengthening SE return flow across the western Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building seas to 8 or 9 ft over the NW Gulf by Mon night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will then continue through Wed night. Light smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may reduce visibilities slightly over the southwest Gulf during the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... W flow is transporting mid to upper level moisture from Central America across the NW Caribbean into Cuba and the SE and central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted over the NW Caribbean mostly north of 20N, including the Yucatan Channel and Cuba. This activity is also seen over the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Moisture is forecast to persist across eastern and central Cuba as well as Hispaniola this weekend enhancing the likelihood of some convective activity, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the SW Caribbean south of 11N due to the East Pacific monsoon trough. Subsidence and relatively dry weather cover the eastern and central Caribbean. The Saharan Air Layer product from CIMSS shows that this is partially due to some African dust that has reached the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate winds in the eastern Caribbean and gentle winds over the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. Similar winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras Sat through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N55W to 27N60W to 25N65W, then continues as a stationary front to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection extends from the stationary front southward to eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, including the SE and central Bahamas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north of the front between 70W-80W, including the NW Bahamas and near extreme southern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm behind and 150 nm ahead of the cold front east of 61W. Between 61W-68W, isolated showers are within 150 nm of the front. The front will weaken and dissipate by Saturday night, but moisture is expected to persist in the area. An area of low pressure is then expected to form several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or northeastward. See latest NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov. The next outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if conditions warrant. E of the front, ridging prevails, between about 35W-49W north of 20N. An upper-level low that has persisted for the last few days in near 26N21W, and it now has a surface reflection, with a 1012 mb surface low analyzed near 26N21W. Strong NE winds are noted per scatterometer data NE of the low center between the Canary and the Madeira Islands, but these winds are more due to the pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high east of the Azores and a 998 mb low over north Africa. Expect near gale NE winds to pulse off the coast of Morocco now through the weekend in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya, and also spreading to Canarias on Sunday, according to the latest forecast from Meteo France. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen