000
AXNT20 KNHC 171023
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of 
Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm 
north of both boundaries mainly west of 19W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb 
high centered near 30N86W, with relatively dry air noted across 
the whole area. The exception is the far southeast Gulf, where 
scattered showers are noted over the Straits of Florida. The Gulf 
is mostly covered by gentle to moderate easterly winds, as noted 
in scatterometer data. Smoke continues to be depicted on satellite
imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

Weak high pressure will move east through the weekend. This will 
support strengthening southeast return flow across the western 
Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building seas to 8 
ft over the NW Gulf by Mon night. Smoke and haze from ongoing 
wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf
and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northwest
Caribbean including Cuba. This activity will gradually dissipate
today. Moderate trades cover the basin most of the basin, except 
south of 15N between 68W-72W, where scatterometer data depicts 
fresh easterlies.

Fresh winds will prevail over the central Caribbean through Sun. 
Then winds will decrease as the high pressure north of the region
weakens. Fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to 
strong speeds at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in 
Central America will reduce visibilities near the Gulf of Honduras
during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N61W
to 26N67W to 25N78W. A surface trough extends from 30N58W to 
23N65W. Scattered moderate convection is from the north coast of 
Cuba to the Central Bahamas, and near the stationary front and 
trough between 52W-65W. Farther east, surface ridging prevails, 
anchored by a 1028 mb high near 35N38W. ASCAT data depicts strong
northeast winds off the coast of Morocco. Winds will increase to 
near gale by early Friday. These near gales offshore of Morocco 
will last through the weekend.

The stationary front will begin to weaken today and dissipate by 
Sat as high pressure begins to build over the northern waters. 
Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the region 
through early next week. A surface trough could develop north of 
the Bahamas Mon night. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA