000 AXNT20 KNHC 170527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm north of both boundaries mainly west of 19W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 29N85W, with relatively dry air noted across the whole area. The exception is the far southeast Gulf, where scattered showers are noted over the Straits of Florida. The Gulf is mostly covered by gentle to moderate easterly winds, as noted in scatterometer data. Smoke continues to be depicted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. Weak high pressure will move east through the weekend. This will support strengthening southeast return flow across the western Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building seas to 8 ft over the NW Gulf by Mon night. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northwest Caribbean including Cuba. This activity should gradually wane as the night progresses. Moderate trades cover the basin most of the basin, except south of 15N between 68W-72W, where scatterometer data depicts fresh easterlies. Fresh winds will prevail over the central Caribbean through Sun. Then winds will decrease as the high pressure north of the region weakens. Fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong speeds at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities near the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N61W to 26N68W to 25N78W. A surface trough extends from 30N58W to 23N65W. Scattered moderate convection is from the north coast of Cuba to the Central Bahamas, and near the stationary front and trough between 58W-76W. Farther east, surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1030 mb high near 35N38W. ASCAT data depicts strong northeast winds off the coast of Morocco. Winds will increase to near gale by early Friday. These near gales offshore of Morocco will last through the weekend. The stationary front in the western Atlantic will begin to weaken tonight and dissipate by Sat as high pressure begins to build over the northern waters. High pressure will remain over the northern waters Sun, then lift north of 31N on Mon. A surface trough could develop north of the Bahamas Mon night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA